CATEGORY DECISION SYSTEM · 探索性实测

相同工具，只改一句角色描述

本轮三个案例未观察到“品类角色”措辞带来的额外收益；两组表现相当，并共同暴露了试验检查结果传递不完整的问题。

3 个既有合成案例 · 每组每例首次运行 1 次 · 同一请求模型、证据、工具、规则和上限

这是角色提示的对比。两组都使用项目的零售工具与规则；评分不含最终程序门禁，没有真人或真实经营执行。本页保留首次回答；随后已补充工具的检查说明，尚未重新调用模型验证效果。

销量下降：缺货还是需求变化？

两组都先调查 K03 缺货，保留“销量不等于潜在需求”的边界。

通用分析角色

52.236 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 3 次业务工具

审阅：正确区分目标商品与全品类缺货，补查取消订单、替代购买和补货记录。

展开模型原文

INVESTIGATE · 模型原始建议

Conduct a read-only K03 availability diagnosis by store and channel, reconciling stockout timing with receipts, replenishment, shelf availability, sales and known shrink. Preserve channel-dedicated inventory pools rather than combining them into a shared stock position. Request a human-reviewed explanation and feasible recovery options before proposing commercial changes. Do not propose an executable pilot: the request is review, declared store/spend authority is zero, pilot approval is absent, the experiment is observational, and aggregate contribution declined. No ordering, pricing, delisting or supplier action is authorized or executed. Any later commercial proposal requires human approval and a fresh assessment against all applicable gates; execution_status=not_executed.

判断与依据

  • Official top-level P&L—not target-SKU metrics—shows weaker historical performance. Scope: all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks, with budget comparisons against supplied current-four-week budgets. CNY: revenue_delta = -1695.0; gross_margin_delta = -1309.2; contribution_delta = -1424.4; revenue_vs_budget = -20611.67; gross_margin_vs_budget = -9653.61; unexplained_inventory_exposure = 0.0. These are descriptive accounting results, not net profit or evidence of causality.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • K03's low observed sales may partly reflect availability constraints rather than weak underlying demand. Target scope: K03 across supplied stores and channels; stockout rate rose from 0.0 to 0.258929. The all-category rate rose from 0.0 to 0.032366, exceeding the supplied 0.03 increase threshold. Other SKUs have current stockout rates of 0.0. This supports investigating K03 availability before considering expansion or assortment reduction; it does not quantify lost sales.inventory_anomaly · assortment
  • The accounting bridge associates the gross-margin decline with quantity effects of -1309.2, while known shrink increased by 115.2; reported price, unit-cost and promotion-cost effects are zero. Availability constraints are a plausible contributor, but the bridge does not establish their causal contribution or attribute the aggregate decline entirely to K03.margin_decomposition · inventory_anomaly
  • There is no identified promotion uplift or active eligible pilot to support expansion: promotion and pilot reviews are not applicable, and no store outliers were identified. Source checks report valid data with no issues and reconciled bridges. The declared two-day feed age and latest completed observation window, September 7–13, are within the seven-day freshness limit as of September 19; freshness therefore does not trigger escalation on the supplied dates.promo_incrementality · pilot_weekly_review · store_cluster_compare · quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition

下一步补证

  • For K03, provide daily store/channel stockout intervals, opening hours, opening and closing stock, receipts, order timestamps, delivery exceptions and shelf-availability checks for the baseline and current periods. What explains the reported availability deterioration?负责人：Inventory control and store operations

    Distinguishes plausible supply, replenishment, shelf and measurement issues before proposing a remedy; maintains separate channel inventory pools.

  • Provide K03's documented unfilled demand, cancellations, substitutions and sales during comparable in-stock periods, with timing matched to stockouts. Which demand measures remain unobserved?负责人：Category analytics and channel operations

    Tests whether low observed sales are availability-constrained without assuming lost-sales volume or causal demand effects.

  • Provide an official K03 store/channel weekly contribution and known-shrink breakdown, plus human-reviewed recovery options with supplied costs, capacity constraints and approval requirements.负责人：Finance and category manager

    Assesses whether a future availability proposal has supportable economics and operating safeguards; does not itself authorize implementation.

未知项与候选方案
  • Whether K03 stockouts reflect replenishment timing, supply constraints, shelf execution, channel allocation, demand changes or measurement issues.
  • K03 demand during unavailable periods, including documented unfilled orders and customer substitution; observed sales alone cannot identify it.
  • K03's store/channel and weekly contribution, known-shrink and availability pattern; aggregate financial results must not be substituted for those target metrics.
  • Economics and operational feasibility of possible availability remedies; there is no identified incremental-contribution estimate.
  • Independent verification of the supplied business process and source authenticity; passing accounting checks does not establish either.
  • Investigate K03 availability first—preferred because availability deterioration is material and aggregate contribution declined.
  • Hold and monitor only—not preferred because it would leave a substantial K03 availability signal unexplained.
  • Propose promotion expansion or a bounded pilot—not supported by the absent promotion incrementality, lack of an eligible active pilot and negative aggregate contribution delta; declared authority also does not permit a pilot.
  • Reduce or delist K03 based on low sales—not supported: observed sales coincide with stockouts and do not identify underlying demand or substitution impact. Any delisting remains a human decision.
原始提案

品类角色

57.854 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 3 次业务工具

审阅：正确识别缺货对销量解释的影响，补查可售时间、补货记录和损耗明细。

展开模型原文

INVESTIGATE · 模型原始建议

Propose a read-only diagnosis of K03 availability across the six stores and both channel-dedicated inventory pools, linking stockout timing to receipts, replenishment records, inventory counts and observed sales. Review known shrink separately from unexplained inventory exposure. Return findings and any subsequent commercial proposal to the human category owner. Do not order, change prices, delist, expand or launch a pilot: authority is zero stores/zero spend, no pilot is approved, and the observational design does not meet ACT eligibility. This is recommendation only; requires_human_approval=true and execution_status=not_executed.

判断与依据

  • K03's low observed sales may reflect constrained availability rather than weak demand: it is in the bottom sales quartile with 1,102 current-period units, while its stockout rate rose from 0 to 0.258929. This association does not establish lost demand or the cause of stockouts. Low sales alone do not justify delisting.assortment · inventory_anomaly
  • Availability deterioration warrants investigation before expansion. The all-category stockout rate rose from 0 to 0.032366, exceeding the supplied 0.03 increase threshold. K03's target-scope rate is substantially higher; it must not be substituted for the aggregate rate. No eligible actual promotion pilot pool exists for a continuation assessment.inventory_anomaly · pilot_weekly_review
  • Official historical P&L, scoped to all SKUs, all stores and both channels, current four weeks versus baseline four weeks: revenue_delta = CNY -1,695.0; gross_margin_delta = CNY -1,309.2; contribution_delta = CNY -1,424.4. Against supplied current-four-week budgets: revenue_vs_budget = CNY -20,611.67; gross_margin_vs_budget = CNY -9,653.61. Unexplained_inventory_exposure = CNY 0.0. The margin bridge reports a quantity effect of CNY -1,309.2 and known-shrink increase of CNY 115.2; these are accounting explanations, not causal proof or net profit.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • Available checks do not indicate an immediate data-quality or unexplained-inventory escalation: row checks are valid, bridges reconcile, and unexplained exposure is zero. On the supplied calendar, the latest completed observation window ends September 13, six days before the September 19 as-of date; declared feed age is two days, both within seven days. There are no identified store outliers and no promoted observations, so neither a local outlier nor promotion incrementality provides an established explanation.quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · inventory_anomaly · store_cluster_compare · promo_incrementality

下一步补证

  • For K03, provide dated stockout intervals, receipt and replenishment records, lead-time exceptions, and count reconciliations by store and channel for the baseline and current periods.负责人：Inventory and store operations leads

    Distinguish supply, replenishment, recording and shelf-availability explanations without treating separate channel pools as shared stock.

  • Provide K03 daily sales and available hours, documented unfilled requests or cancelled orders, and observed substitution during stockout intervals, with comparable in-stock periods.负责人：Category analyst and channel operations leads

    Assess whether the low-sales designation is availability-constrained before considering assortment or replenishment proposals; do not infer demand solely from sales.

  • Provide the SKU/store/channel breakdown and supporting records for known shrink, including timing and any expiry or damage classifications, and relate them descriptively to availability gaps.负责人：Finance controller and inventory control lead

    Locate booked contribution leakage and assess whether availability remedies could introduce waste risk, without attributing discrepancies to theft or personnel.

未知项与候选方案
  • Root cause, duration and timing of K03 stockouts within each store/channel pool.
  • K03 demand while unavailable, customer substitution and documented unfilled requests.
  • Whether known shrink and replenishment or expiry processes coincide with K03 availability gaps.
  • No identified promotion incrementality or eligible current pilot operating evidence.
  • Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside the supplied evidence.
  • Investigate K03 availability and demand censoring first; preferred because stockout deterioration accompanies low observed volume.
  • Hold and monitor without diagnosis; not preferred because the aggregate availability increase breaches the supplied investigation threshold.
  • Bounded promotion pilot or expansion; not supported by identified incremental contribution, an eligible actual pilot pool, or current contribution performance, and declared authority does not permit it.
  • Delist K03 on low volume alone; not supported because substantial stockouts confound sales interpretation and substitution or delisting impact is not estimated.
原始提案

条件齐备：能否建议有限试点？

两组均认为试点有潜力，但都先索要工具未显式展示的完整性检查；这是共同接口缺口。

通用分析角色

45.623 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 3 次业务工具

审阅：数字与经营护栏正确；提出先核查试验完整性，再建议限定试点。

展开模型原文

INVESTIGATE · 模型原始建议

Complete a narrow experiment-integrity review before recommending ACT. Obtain the store/SKU/channel audit establishing complete four-week baseline and current coverage, no baseline treatment or promotion, stable current assignment across channels, promotion on every treated current observation, and no promoted controls. The supplied summaries establish favorable economics and operating signals but do not explicitly establish all these mandatory conditions. If verified without new adverse evidence, return a bounded K06 proposal restricted to S01 and S04, with positive spend capped at CNY 500 and monitoring of contribution, stockouts and inventory exposure. This is advisory only: requires_human_approval=true; execution_status=not_executed. No commercial action or expansion is authorized by this proposal.

判断与依据

  • Historical performance improved, but remained below supplied budget. Official top-level metrics, in CNY, for all SKUs, all stores and both channels, current four weeks versus baseline four weeks: revenue_delta = 14052.0; gross_margin_delta = 6074.6; contribution_delta = 5767.4; revenue_vs_budget = -5448.96; gross_margin_vs_budget = -2539.18; unexplained_inventory_exposure = 0.0. Budget variances compare current actuals only with current supplied budgets. These are not net-profit or future-uplift estimates.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • K06 is a promising bounded-pilot candidate: the supplied baseline-adjusted promotion estimate is positive, with incremental contribution of CNY 1893.0 across four matched baseline and current weeks. This estimate uses the declared randomized design; the six-store sample has no supplied confidence interval. It does not by itself demonstrate every required assignment and promotion-integrity check.promo_incrementality
  • Observed operating guardrails support further consideration rather than an operating-stop signal. Aggregate and target current stockout rates are zero. Every actual treated K06 pool in S01 and S04 has zero latest-week stockouts and positive latest-week contribution, with no negative reversal. Both treated stores have positive pilot and full-store contribution deltas; no store outliers were identified.inventory_anomaly · pilot_weekly_review · store_cluster_compare
  • No source-data escalation trigger is apparent: supplied quality checks report valid data with no issues, financial bridges reconcile, and unexplained inventory exposure is zero. The declared feed age is two days. The latest observed week starts September 7 and completes September 13, within the seven-day freshness limit at September 19. These checks do not establish that assignment and promotion processes followed the experimental protocol.quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · pilot_weekly_review

下一步补证

  • Can the experiment owner supply an audited completeness and assignment report for K06 covering all eight weeks and every treated/control store-channel pool, confirming no baseline treatment/promotion, stable current assignments, promotion on all treated current observations, and no promoted controls, together with protocol and spillover checks?负责人：Experiment owner / analytics QA

    Closes the explicit experiment-eligibility gap. Favorable estimated economics cannot substitute for verification of mandatory design and implementation conditions.

未知项与候选方案
  • Explicit row-level verification of complete baseline/current coverage, baseline cleanliness, stable cross-channel assignment and treated/control promotion compliance is not supplied.
  • The supplied promotion estimate has no confidence interval or statistical-significance assessment; future contribution is uncertain.
  • The reason for the revenue and gross-margin budget shortfalls is not established by the accounting bridges.
  • Immediate bounded K06 pilot recommendation in S01 and S04: economically promising and observed operating guardrails favorable, but deferred until the mandatory experiment-integrity checks are explicitly evidenced.
  • Targeted diagnosis before a pilot recommendation: preferred because it addresses a specific eligibility gap without treating favorable historical associations as causal proof.
  • Escalation for financial reconciliation or inventory exposure: not supported by the supplied valid quality checks, reconciled bridges and zero unexplained exposure.
原始提案

品类角色

59.758 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 2 次业务工具

审阅：数字与经营护栏正确；同样先索要完整性检查，另补负责人、时长与预算计划。

展开模型原文

INVESTIGATE · 模型原始建议

Complete a narrow experiment-integrity check before recommending ACT for K06. Confirm complete four-week baseline/current coverage for every relevant store/SKU/channel pool, no baseline treatment or promotion, stable current assignment across channels, promotion on every treated current observation, and no promoted controls. If confirmed, return a bounded-pilot proposal for human approval limited to S01 and S04 and a positive total spend no greater than the declared CNY 500 authority; do not expand elsewhere. Retain monitoring of contribution, stockouts and inventory reconciliation. This is advisory only: requires_human_approval=true; execution_status=not_executed. No commercial action is authorized or executed.

判断与依据

  • Official historical P&L is positive versus baseline but below budget. Scope: all SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks, with budget comparisons against supplied current-period budgets. CNY: revenue_delta = 14052.0; gross_margin_delta = 6074.6; contribution_delta = 5767.4; revenue_vs_budget = -5448.96; gross_margin_vs_budget = -2539.18; unexplained_inventory_exposure = 0.0. These are accounting results, not net profit or causal evidence.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • The supplied data pass reported validation and financial bridges reconcile. Declared feed age is two days; the latest observed week starts 2026-09-07 and completes before the 2026-09-19 as-of date, within the seven-day freshness limit. No reported data-quality or inventory-exposure escalation trigger is present.quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · pilot_weekly_review
  • K06 is a promising bounded-pilot candidate: the official baseline-adjusted estimate reports incremental contribution of CNY 1893.0 across four matched weeks under the declared randomized design. This supports a positive-incrementality hypothesis, not causal proof, statistical significance, or guaranteed future uplift. The returned summaries do not explicitly document every assignment and promotion-integrity condition required for ACT.promo_incrementality · quality
  • Reported operating signals do not indicate a pilot reversal or availability breach. Aggregate and target current stockout rates are zero; every listed latest-week actual pilot pool has zero stockouts and positive contribution. S01 and S04 have positive pilot and full-store contribution deltas, and no store is flagged as an outlier. These descriptive findings support consideration of a bounded pilot rather than unrestricted expansion.inventory_anomaly · pilot_weekly_review · store_cluster_compare

下一步补证

  • Provide an experiment-QA attestation covering complete four-week baseline and current observations for each relevant pool, absence of baseline treatment/promotion, stable current store/SKU assignment across channels, all treated current observations promoted, and no promoted controls. Reconcile this attestation to the official estimated incrementality status without recalculating that estimate.负责人：Experiment owner / data quality lead

    These are explicit ACT eligibility requirements. Confirmation would close the principal evidence gap; a failure would require investigation rather than pilot expansion.

  • For a potential K06 pilot confined to S01 and S04, document the proposed duration, positive spend not exceeding CNY 500, responsible owner, human approval checkpoint and weekly pool-level guardrail review.负责人：Category manager / human commercial approver

    Defines a bounded, reviewable proposal within declared authority without implying permission to execute.

未知项与候选方案
  • The returned summaries do not explicitly attest to complete observation coverage and all baseline/current treatment and promotion-integrity conditions.
  • The incremental-contribution estimate has no supplied confidence interval; future uplift and generalizability remain uncertain.
  • A prospective pilot duration, detailed spend allocation and accountable execution owner are not supplied.
  • Competitor information is declared unverified and non-comparable and is not used.
  • A bounded K06 pilot in S01 and S04: economically and operationally promising, but defer ACT advice until the explicit experiment-integrity evidence is confirmed.
  • Immediate broader rollout: not supported by the bounded authority or by a small six-store estimate without uncertainty quantification.
  • Passive monitoring only: less appropriate than a targeted QA check because the positive official estimate supports resolving a specific eligibility gap.
原始提案

生鲜订货：损耗与缺货怎样取舍？

两组都呈现减少订货的贡献收益与缺货代价，允许条件分析，并把经营执行交给人。

通用分析角色

51.995 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 3 次业务工具

审阅：HOLD 指暂停变更审批；仍比较方案并保留需求、折价反应和授权未知项。

展开模型原文

HOLD · 模型原始建议

Hold approval of any change and submit the audited S01/K06 three-day alternatives to the human commercial owner; this is not an instruction to place or retain an order. Reduced ordering is not uniformly better than maintain, and markdown cannot yet be compared. Obtain documented order authority and review demand/service-risk evidence before choosing. ACT is unavailable: the request is fresh_review, declared stores/spend authority is zero, no pilot is approved, and the experiment is observational. requires_human_approval=true; execution_status=not_executed. If a human separately authorizes a trial, review documented daily unfilled units, lot expiry and contribution after September 21 against the supplied scenarios; reopen the decision if outcomes fall outside them. Keep this review separate from historical four-plus-four-week P&L.

判断与依据

  • Historical financial context—not a forecast or net profit. Scope: all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks. Official CNY metrics: revenue_delta=8696.0; gross_margin_delta=3909.8; contribution_delta=3794.6; revenue_vs_budget=-11051.7; gross_margin_vs_budget=-4873.39; unexplained_inventory_exposure=0.0. Growth alongside budget shortfalls does not establish demand causality or justify changing K06 orders.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • No reported historical data-quality or operating escalation signal: quality checks are valid, bridges reconcile, current stockout rate is 0, and no store outliers are identified. The declared feed age is two days; the latest declared observation week starts September 7 and ends September 13, within the seven-day freshness limit at September 19. No promoted observations or eligible current pilot pool exist; promotion incrementality and pilot continuation tests are not applicable, not proven successful.quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · inventory_anomaly · store_cluster_compare · promo_incrementality · pilot_weekly_review
  • For S01/K06, September 19–21 only, reduced ordering may trade expiry savings for unfilled demand. Audited contribution improvement versus maintain ranges from CNY -240 to +360 across unweighted scenarios. Reduce-order contribution is CNY 140/440/740 for low/middle/high demand, versus -220/180/980 for maintain; corresponding reduce-order unfilled units are 0/10/60 versus 0 throughout for maintain. This is neither guaranteed uplift nor an optimal-policy result. Purchase cash is separate from contribution, not a second deduction.fresh_options
  • The fresh-case physical count and demand assumptions match dated synthetic sources, but ordering authority is unsupported because the referenced order-review record is missing. Markdown response remains not_identified in all three scenarios. These limitations prevent a supported ordering or markdown recommendation from being treated as approved or executed; external authenticity is not_verified.source_provenance_audit · fresh_options

下一步补证

  • Provide the missing order-review record, an accountable commercial approver, and confirmation of feasible order-change terms for S01/K06.负责人：Commercial owner / replenishment manager

    Establishes authority and feasibility without assuming that synthetic source matching or this proposal grants execution rights.

  • Provide dated S01/K06 demand and unfilled-demand records relevant to September 19–21, and document the human owner's acceptance or rejection of the modeled 10- and 60-unit shortfalls under reduced ordering.负责人：Store operations and category analyst

    Supports choosing between lower expiry exposure and maintaining service; the contribution comparison changes sign across scenarios.

  • If markdown remains under consideration, provide a documented markdown-response basis and submit it for an audited like-for-like option comparison.负责人：Pricing analyst / commercial owner

    Markdown is not_identified and cannot currently be ranked against maintain or reduce_order.

  • After any separately authorized trial, provide daily receipts, FEFO sales, documented unfilled units, expiry writeoffs, fees and reconciled contribution for the three-day scope.负责人：Store operations and finance

    Checks outcomes against the hypothetical scenarios and reopens review if they fall outside them; does not establish causal uplift.

未知项与候选方案
  • Actual daily potential demand and lost demand; supplied scenarios are assumptions, not forecasts, and have no assigned probabilities.
  • Documented authority and executable terms for the proposed order change; order-review has no matching source record.
  • Markdown demand response and therefore markdown revenue, contribution and expiry outcomes.
  • Human acceptance of the expiry-versus-service trade-off; no fresh-case service-risk acceptance is supplied.
  • Post-trial unfilled units, expiry and contribution; no trial execution or follow-up observations are established.
  • External authenticity of the synthetic source records remains not_verified.
  • Maintain: low/middle/high contribution CNY -220/180/980; expired units 130/90/10; unfilled units 0/0/0; purchase cash CNY 720. Preserves modeled service but exposes more inventory to expiry in low and middle demand. Not an instruction to order.
  • Reduce order: low/middle/high contribution CNY 140/440/740; expired units 70/40/10; unfilled units 0/10/60; purchase cash CNY 360. A conditional trade-off, not a uniformly superior option; requires human ordering review.
  • Markdown: no calculated scenarios because the response multiplier is missing. Defer ranking or a price-change proposal until supported evidence and human commercial review are available.
原始提案

品类角色

55.737 秒 · 2 轮模型请求 · 3 次业务工具

审阅：INVESTIGATE 指补证后交人决定；明确缺少订单审批不使条件测算失效。

展开模型原文

INVESTIGATE · 模型原始建议

Refer the S01/K06 three-day fresh decision to the human category/order owner before any change. Do not select a scenario-weighted winner: reduce_order improves contribution in low/middle demand but causes 10/60 unfilled units in middle/high demand and underperforms maintain in high demand. Resolve order authority, assess documented unmet demand and the acceptable availability-versus-expiry tradeoff, and obtain markdown-response evidence before ranking markdown. No order, markdown, supplier commitment or pilot is authorized or executed; requires_human_approval=true; execution_status=not_executed. If a human separately approves a trial, review daily lot receipts, FEFO sales, documented unfilled units and expiry, then reconcile three-day contribution using sold COGS, writeoffs and fees. Keep purchase cash separate and reopen the decision if actual outcomes fall outside supplied scenarios. Do not mix this fresh-case analysis into historical P&L.

判断与依据

  • Historical all-category P&L, all SKUs/all stores/both channels, current four weeks versus baseline four weeks (CNY): revenue_delta = 8696.0; gross_margin_delta = 3909.8; contribution_delta = 3794.6; revenue_vs_budget = -11051.7; gross_margin_vs_budget = -4873.39; unexplained_inventory_exposure = 0.0. Budget variances use current-period supplied budgets only. Growth alongside budget shortfalls does not establish demand causality or net profit.sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · budget · inventory_anomaly
  • No historical data or inventory escalation trigger is apparent: quality checks pass, bridges reconcile, unexplained exposure is zero, aggregate stockouts are zero, and no store outlier is flagged. The declared two-day feed age and latest completed observation window, September 7–13 relative to September 19, are within the seven-day freshness limit. Historical availability does not rule out future fresh-case shortages.quality · sales_decomposition · margin_decomposition · inventory_anomaly · store_cluster_compare
  • For S01/K06, September 19–21 only, reducing the order may exchange lower expiry for lost availability. Audited low/middle/high contribution is CNY 140/440/740 under reduce_order versus -220/180/980 under maintain. The supplied improvement range is -240 to +360, so reduction does not dominate maintain. Reduced-order unfilled units are 0/10/60 versus zero under maintain; expired units are 70/40/10 versus 130/90/10. These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts or causal uplift.fresh_options
  • Markdown cannot yet be ranked because its demand-response multiplier is missing in every scenario. Count and demand records match within the synthetic case, but the order-authority claim is unsupported because the referenced order-review record is absent. This optional authority gap does not invalidate the scenario arithmetic or confer permission to order; external authenticity remains not_verified.fresh_options · source_provenance_audit
  • ACT is not supported. There is no identified promotion incrementality and no eligible current promotion pilot to review. The declared observational design, zero spending/store authority and unapproved pilot cannot be replaced by fresh-case scenario results. A human must decide any order or markdown change.promo_incrementality · pilot_weekly_review · source_provenance_audit

下一步补证

  • Provide the missing order-review record, identifying the authorized decision-maker, scope, permitted order change and approval status for S01/K06.负责人：Category manager / authorized order owner

    Resolves unsupported authority without treating a scenario calculation as permission to execute.

  • Provide recent daily demand and documented unfilled-demand observations for S01/K06, together with the human owner's acceptable availability-versus-expiry tradeoff.负责人：Store operations and demand planning

    Reduction is not uniformly better: its high-demand contribution is lower and it leaves 60 units unfilled.

  • Supply a documented markdown proposal and demand-response basis, then obtain an audited comparison on the same three-day lot-flow scope.负责人：Pricing/category analyst

    Markdown is not_identified and cannot responsibly be ranked against maintain or reduce_order.

  • If a trial is separately approved, provide dated receipts, lot-level sales, expiry/writeoffs, documented unfilled units and action fees for September 19–21, plus audited contribution reconciliation.负责人：Store operations and finance

    Checks realized availability, expiry and contribution; reopens review if outcomes fall outside supplied scenarios without claiming causal proof.

未知项与候选方案
  • Which daily demand scenario, if any, will resemble actual demand; no probabilities are supplied.
  • Human acceptance of potential unmet demand versus expiry savings.
  • Markdown demand response and comparable audited markdown economics.
  • Documented order authority and authorization for any commercial change.
  • Actual post-trial unfilled demand, expiry and contribution; no follow-up outcomes are supplied.
  • External authenticity of synthetic source records remains not_verified.
  • Maintain: audited low/middle/high contribution CNY -220/180/980; no unfilled units; expiry 130/90/10 units. Preserves modeled availability but has greater low/middle-demand waste. Purchase cash CNY 720 is separate from contribution.
  • Reduce order: audited low/middle/high contribution CNY 140/440/740; unfilled units 0/10/60; expiry 70/40/10 units. Purchase cash CNY 360 is separate from contribution. Conditional alternative for human review, not an authorized action or uniformly superior policy.
  • Markdown: all three scenarios are not_identified because the markdown-response multiplier is absent. Defer ranking or recommending a price change until comparable audited evidence and human review are available.
原始提案