本页展示已保存的真实模型响应。B 直接阅读 CSV；C 的最终行动由确定性工具与门槛决定，模型提供假设。开发集单次结果不能证明模型能力提升或真实经营收益。
本轮中断后尝试恢复：原始段保留 13 份记录，恢复段保存成功响应 7 份；历史 case 调用失败 7 条、恢复准备失败 2 条，不能称连续首轮实验。
已记录覆盖：直接分析 10 / 10，系统 10 / 10。中断和启动失败均已保留，缺失题不计为成功。
行动选择一致：10 / 10 个情境。排除坏数据后，精确财务核验：直接分析 34 / 54，系统 54 / 54。
仅描述当前共同样本；不能证明模型或 Agent 整体更优。
结果报告 · 独立财务核验 · B 原始结果 · C 原始结果
| 情境 | B 直接模型 | C 工具与门槛 |
|---|---|---|
| C09 | ACT | ACT |
| C02 | INVESTIGATE | INVESTIGATE |
| C05 | HOLD | HOLD |
| C07 | ESCALATE | ESCALATE |
| C01 | INVESTIGATE | INVESTIGATE |
| C08 | HOLD | HOLD |
| C03 | INVESTIGATE | INVESTIGATE |
| C10 | HOLD | HOLD |
| C06 | ESCALATE | ESCALATE |
| C04 | INVESTIGATE | INVESTIGATE |
Higher recorded sales volumes at unchanged prices and unit costs increased gross margin. Additional known shrink and promotion costs partially offset that increase.
Recommend a four-week repeat of the documented K06 intervention within the existing two-store footprint. All listed numerical eligibility conditions pass under the supplied experimental assumptions. Before implementation, the human category manager must confirm the intervention specification, complete incremental costs and operating dates. This is a simulated recommendation only.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue and contribution increased, although revenue and gross margin remained below supplied budgets. Recorded availability and inventory reconciliation support a bounded pilot recommendation.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "Higher recorded sales volumes at unchanged prices and unit costs increased gross margin. Additional known shrink and promotion costs partially offset that increase.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 361940 to 375232; gross margin increased from CNY 159562.40 to 165302; contribution increased from CNY 159099 to 164531.40.",
"limitations": "These accounting comparisons do not establish causality, net profit, or future uplift."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "All supplied store-SKU-channel-week records",
"claim": "Revenue, gross margin, known shrink and inventory balances reconcile under the supplied definitions. Recorded stockout hours and book-to-actual inventory discrepancies are zero. Supplied data freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold.",
"limitations": "Internal reconciliation does not independently verify physical counts or source-system accuracy."
},
{
"source": "Supplied treatment flags and experiment metadata",
"scope": "K06, both channels; treated stores S01 and S04 versus untreated stores S02, S03, S05 and S06 across the specified periods",
"claim": "A contribution difference-in-differences estimate is positive after recorded promotion costs and known shrink. The supplied context declares randomized assignment, preregistration, supported parallel trends and no spillover.",
"limitations": "Design declarations are supplied assumptions, not independently audited evidence. The estimate does not guarantee repeat performance."
},
{
"source": "Supplied competitor signal",
"scope": "Observation dated 2026-09-17",
"claim": "The signal is unverified and noncomparable and is excluded from the recommendation.",
"limitations": "Comparable product scope and supporting source evidence are absent."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"The precise promotional intervention and whether its recorded costs include every incremental implementation expense.",
"Statistical uncertainty and persistence of the estimated treatment effect beyond the observed stores and weeks.",
"Causes of sales movements outside the treatment comparison and causes of known shrink."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 13292,
"gross_margin_delta": 5739.6,
"contribution_delta": 5432.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": -5447.76,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -2538.64,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"target_metrics": {
"scope": "K06, both channels; baseline weeks 2026-07-20 through 2026-08-10 versus current weeks 2026-08-17 through 2026-09-07. Treatment cohort: S01 and S04; control cohort: S02, S03, S05 and S06. Monetary values are CNY.",
"all_six_stores": {
"revenue_delta": 6480,
"gross_margin_delta": 2700,
"contribution_delta": 2508
},
"treatment_cohort": {
"baseline_contribution": 6762,
"current_contribution": 8860,
"contribution_delta": 2098,
"current_promotion_cost": 192,
"current_stockout_rate": 0,
"current_unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"control_cohort": {
"baseline_contribution": 14164,
"current_contribution": 14574,
"contribution_delta": 410
},
"estimated_incremental_contribution": 1893,
"estimator": "Treatment contribution change minus control contribution change scaled to two treatment stores: 2098 - 410 × 2/4.",
"estimate_scope": "Historical four-week incremental contribution estimate for K06 in the two treatment stores, both channels; conditional on supplied experimental assumptions, not a future forecast."
},
"DECISION": "ACT",
"ACTION": {
"type": "bounded_pilot",
"description": "Recommend a four-week repeat of the documented K06 intervention within the existing two-store footprint. All listed numerical eligibility conditions pass under the supplied experimental assumptions. Before implementation, the human category manager must confirm the intervention specification, complete incremental costs and operating dates. This is a simulated recommendation only.",
"scope": {
"skus": [
"K06"
],
"stores": [
"S01",
"S04"
],
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"duration_weeks": 4,
"proposed_promotion_spend_cap_cny": 192,
"total_spend_ceiling_cny": 500,
"comparison_stores": [
"S02",
"S03",
"S05",
"S06"
],
"need_coverage_requirement": "Preserve K07 availability and customer need coverage."
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Approve the exact pilot and retain authority over execution, pricing, delisting and supplier commitments."
},
{
"role": "Finance and category analyst",
"responsibility": "Reconcile costs and budgets and evaluate contribution against the control cohort."
},
{
"role": "Store operations",
"responsibility": "Monitor availability, inventory reconciliation and need coverage if humans authorize implementation."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"cadence": "Weekly during any approved pilot, with a final review after four complete weeks.",
"measures": [
"Category and target contribution, including all confirmed incremental costs.",
"Treatment-versus-control contribution change.",
"Stockout hours divided by open hours at category and individual SKU-store-channel levels.",
"Unexplained inventory exposure, cumulative spend and protected need coverage."
],
"expansion_rule": "No automatic expansion; humans must review results, uncertainty and all eligibility conditions."
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Pause and escalate if data become invalid, unreconciled or older than seven days.",
"Pause if unexplained inventory exposure becomes positive; escalate at CNY 100 or more.",
"Pause and investigate if contribution declines, estimated incremental contribution becomes nonpositive, stockout rate exceeds 5%, or stockout rate increases by at least three percentage points.",
"Stop for a spend-ceiling breach or impaired protected need coverage; authorized humans restore the pre-pilot operating setup."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"financial_calculations": "High within the supplied CSV and contract definitions.",
"pilot_recommendation": "Moderate, conditional on supplied experimental assumptions and confirmation of complete implementation costs.",
"future_uplift": "Uncertain; no guaranteed uplift or net-profit claim."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C09",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "eeb1566a3264ceb57d20e8f393a34a0cde96b2601df2cd0e3a31bf3832513269",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}合成对照试验显示正增量贡献，当前护栏与明确试点授权同时满足。
建议在既有合成授权内延续 7 天小范围试点；仅形成建议，不执行价格、订货或促销。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥375,272.00；较基期变化 ¥14,052.00；贡献额变化 ¥5,767.40。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "合成对照试验显示正增量贡献，当前护栏与明确试点授权同时满足。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 361220.0,
"current_revenue": 375272.0,
"revenue_delta": 14052.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.038902,
"volume_effect": 13861.66,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": 190.34,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 159245.4,
"current_gross_margin": 165320.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 6074.6,
"baseline_contribution": 158782.0,
"current_contribution": 164549.4,
"contribution_delta": 5767.4,
"quantity_effect": 6074.6,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 192.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 192.0,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "matched store/SKU/channel pools, four pre and four post weeks",
"method": "baseline-adjusted difference-in-differences under declared randomized design",
"metrics": {
"status": "estimated",
"incremental_units": 208.5,
"incremental_contribution": 1893.0,
"treated_pools": 4,
"control_pools": 8,
"matched_weeks": 4,
"cluster_store_n": {
"community": 3,
"urban": 3
}
},
"limitations": [
"Small six-store demo: no confidence interval or statistical-significance claim.",
"Synthetic demo only; real decisions require experiment QA and spillover monitoring."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52339.0,
"current_revenue": 56171.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.073215,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.0299,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55258.0,
"current_revenue": 56643.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.025064,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.053975,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58471.0,
"current_revenue": 60502.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.034735,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.04914,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 62611.0,
"current_revenue": 66293.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.058808,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.02353,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 64880.0,
"current_revenue": 66331.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.022364,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.041752,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67661.0,
"current_revenue": 69332.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.024697,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.040586,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1419.0,
"K02": 1536.0,
"K03": 1707.0,
"K04": 1850.0,
"K05": 1998.0,
"K06": 2371.0,
"K07": 2298.0,
"K08": 2434.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 375272.0,
"revenue_budget": 380720.96,
"revenue_variance": -5448.96,
"gross_margin_actual": 165320.0,
"gross_margin_budget": 167859.18,
"gross_margin_variance": -2539.18
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"Small six-store demo: no confidence interval or statistical-significance claim.",
"Synthetic demo only; real decisions require experiment QA and spillover monitoring.",
"试验结果尚不证明长期盈利；合成授权不是现实企业授权。"
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 14052.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 6074.6,
"contribution_delta": 5767.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": -5448.96,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -2539.18,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "ACT",
"ACTION": {
"type": "bounded_pilot",
"description": "建议在既有合成授权内延续 7 天小范围试点；仅形成建议，不执行价格、订货或促销。",
"scope": {
"stores": [
"S01",
"S04"
],
"skus": [
"K06"
],
"duration_days": 7,
"max_stores": 2,
"max_spend_cny": 500.0,
"authority_basis": "synthetic scenario approval; not real authorization"
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Category Manager",
"Promotion Owner",
"Store Ops"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"复核时增量贡献不再为正、缺货率超过 5%、出现库存差异，或授权撤回，立即建议停止试点并复核。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C09",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "eeb1566a3264ceb57d20e8f393a34a0cde96b2601df2cd0e3a31bf3832513269",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "bounded_pilot_eligibility",
"triggered": true,
"checks": {
"requested": true,
"authority": true,
"identified": true,
"incremental_profit_positive": true,
"guardrails": true,
"worst_pilot_pool_stockout_rate": 0.0
}
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "ACT",
"final_decision": "ACT"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The declared randomized experiment supports a positive promotion contribution estimate of CNY 1893.0. Sampling variation remains a competing explanation for the estimated magnitude: the six-store demo supplies no confidence interval. This is not a verified future uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"promo_incrementality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Broader volume changes may also explain category growth. The accounting bridge attributes most revenue growth to volume, but cannot distinguish promotion response from seasonality or other demand changes.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Below-budget revenue and gross margin could reflect either performance shortfalls or budget-setting assumptions. Positive period-over-period contribution does not resolve that distinction or establish net profitability.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 14052.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 6074.6,
"contribution_delta": 5767.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": -5448.96,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -2539.18,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"currency": "CNY",
"financial_evidence": {
"revenue_delta": "sales_decomposition",
"gross_margin_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"contribution_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"revenue_vs_budget": "budget",
"gross_margin_vs_budget": "budget",
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": "inventory_anomaly"
},
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The declared randomized experiment supports a positive promotion contribution estimate of CNY 1893.0. Sampling variation remains a competing explanation for the estimated magnitude: the six-store demo supplies no confidence interval. This is not a verified future uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"promo_incrementality"
]
},
{
"statement": "Broader volume changes may also explain category growth. The accounting bridge attributes most revenue growth to volume, but cannot distinguish promotion response from seasonality or other demand changes.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"store_cluster_compare"
]
},
{
"statement": "Below-budget revenue and gross margin could reflect either performance shortfalls or budget-setting assumptions. Positive period-over-period contribution does not resolve that distinction or establish net profitability.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"margin_decomposition"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "ACT",
"decision_basis": {
"statement": "The supplied synthetic case meets the listed pilot conditions: valid data, declared freshness of two days, approved simulated limits, declared randomized and pre-registered design with supported parallel trends and no spillover, positive estimated incremental contribution, positive category contribution delta, zero current stockouts, zero unexplained inventory exposure, and no detected store outliers. ACT authorizes only a recommendation within this exercise.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"promo_incrementality",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"context_basis": [
"business_context.data_freshness_days",
"business_context.experiment",
"business_context.authority"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "bounded_pilot",
"description": "Propose a K06 pilot in two human-selected stores with a total spend cap of CNY 500. Before execution, have the human owner confirm the intervention, duration, control allocation and stopping rules. Preserve the declared experimental safeguards and monitor contribution, availability and customer need coverage. Pause for human review if contribution declines, stockouts exceed 5%, or unexplained inventory exposure appears. No delisting, price change or supplier commitment is authorized.",
"sku": "K06",
"stores": 2,
"max_spend_cny": 500.0,
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"The precision and repeatability of the incremental contribution estimate, including experiment QA and spillover monitoring.",
"Explicit confirmation that the estimated treatment and pool scope match the proposed K06 intervention.",
"Final store selection, intervention details, pilot duration and human-approved stopping rules.",
"Budget allocation assumptions and reasons for the budget shortfalls.",
"Customer substitution and need-coverage effects beyond observed stockout rates.",
"Competitor comparability and source verification; the supplied unverified signal is excluded from the recommendation."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}The accounting deterioration is concentrated in K02: its lower selling price reduced unit gross margin, and promotion spending further reduced contribution. This does not establish the promotion's causal effect on sales.
Recommend deferring expansion while the category manager and finance team review discount economics, promotion costs and category substitution. Establish a credible comparison before estimating incremental contribution. Any price change, promotion commitment or future pilot remains a human decision.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue increased, but contribution declined. Investigate before expanding the K02 promotion.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "The accounting deterioration is concentrated in K02: its lower selling price reduced unit gross margin, and promotion spending further reduced contribution. This does not establish the promotion's causal effect on sales.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 359649.00 to 373815.50. Gross margin increased from CNY 158564.90 to 158570.30, while contribution fell from CNY 158101.50 to 152951.70.",
"limitations": "Contribution uses only the contract's specified costs; it is not net profit or an estimate of incremental promotion impact."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks",
"claim": "Supplied revenue budget totals CNY 380127.68 and gross-margin budget totals CNY 167617.95. Actuals are below both budgets.",
"limitations": "Budget variances use supplied current-period budgets only; budgets are not causal counterfactuals."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business_context.data_freshness_days",
"scope": "All supplied SKUs, stores and channels across both comparison periods",
"claim": "Recorded stockout hours are zero in both periods. Current book and actual closing inventories agree. Reported data freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold.",
"limitations": "Recorded availability and inventory agreement do not independently verify physical availability or customer need coverage."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and experiment metadata",
"scope": "K02, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Higher unit sales and revenue coincided with lower price, lower gross margin and lower contribution. The experiment is observational, without supported parallel trends, no-spillover assurance or preregistration.",
"limitations": "No credible untreated K02 comparison is supplied; promotion-driven demand and incremental contribution are unidentified."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"How K02 sales and category contribution would have evolved without the promotion.",
"The roles of seasonality, customer switching, purchase timing and other concurrent changes.",
"Whether expansion could generate positive incremental contribution while preserving availability and need coverage.",
"The competitor signal's accuracy and relevance: it is unverified and noncomparable and cannot support this recommendation."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 14166.5,
"gross_margin_delta": 5.4,
"contribution_delta": -5149.8,
"revenue_vs_budget": -6312.18,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9047.65,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"target_metrics": {
"scope": "K02 only; S01–S06; online and offline; baseline weeks 2026-07-20 through 2026-08-10 versus current weeks 2026-08-17 through 2026-09-07; monetary amounts in CNY excluding VAT",
"baseline_units": 1501,
"current_units": 2398,
"baseline_unit_price": 19,
"current_unit_price": 14.25,
"baseline_unit_gross_margin": 8.5,
"current_unit_gross_margin": 3.75,
"revenue_delta": 5652.5,
"gross_margin_delta": -3766,
"baseline_promotion_cost": 0,
"current_promotion_cost": 5040,
"baseline_known_shrink": 0,
"current_known_shrink": 63,
"baseline_contribution": 12758.5,
"current_contribution": 3889.5,
"contribution_delta": -8869,
"estimated_incremental_contribution": null
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "investigate_before_expansion",
"description": "Recommend deferring expansion while the category manager and finance team review discount economics, promotion costs and category substitution. Establish a credible comparison before estimating incremental contribution. Any price change, promotion commitment or future pilot remains a human decision.",
"scope": {
"target_skus": [
"K02"
],
"analysis_stores": [
"S01",
"S02",
"S03",
"S04",
"S05",
"S06"
],
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"category_guardrails": "Contribution, availability and protected customer need coverage across all SKUs",
"authorized_execution_stores": 0,
"authorized_execution_spend_cny": 0
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Own the commercial assessment and any promotion or pricing decision."
},
{
"role": "Finance analyst",
"responsibility": "Validate the contribution bridge and supplied budget comparisons."
},
{
"role": "Analytics and store operations",
"responsibility": "Assess causal identification, availability and customer need coverage."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "Before any expansion or pilot approval",
"required_evidence": [
"Reviewed contribution economics including discounts, known shrink and promotion spending.",
"A credible estimate of incremental category contribution with uncertainty.",
"Availability and need-coverage checks across affected stores and channels."
],
"act_eligibility": "Not met: the request is expansion, pilot authority is absent, the experimental requirements fail, positive incremental contribution is unestablished and category contribution declined."
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Reconsider a bounded pilot only after every contractual ACT condition is satisfied and a human approves its exact scope and spending.",
"Escalate if source data become invalid, stale or unreconciled, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"financial_description": "High within the supplied synthetic records and contract definitions.",
"decision": "High that investigation is required before expansion.",
"causal_effect": "Unidentified; neither causal uplift nor future returns can be inferred."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C02",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "ed7ca5033947986f2534229dbd9ead8e0a3ba0064f862fd14286885af9d169eb",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}销售额上升而扣除已知损耗与促销费用后的贡献额下降，单一营收 KPI 失真。
拆分促销、商品组合、成本和损耗影响；在贡献额护栏恢复前不扩大促销。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥373,975.50；较基期变化 ¥16,258.50；贡献额变化 ¥-4,195.80。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "销售额上升而扣除已知损耗与促销费用后的贡献额下降，单一营收 KPI 失真。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 357717.0,
"current_revenue": 373975.5,
"revenue_delta": 16258.5,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.045451,
"volume_effect": 32098.19,
"price_effect": -11390.5,
"mix_effect": -4449.19,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 157690.9,
"current_gross_margin": 158650.3,
"gross_margin_delta": 959.4,
"baseline_contribution": 157227.5,
"current_contribution": 153031.7,
"contribution_delta": -4195.8,
"quantity_effect": 12349.9,
"price_effect": -11390.5,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 5040.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 5040.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "promoted current rows",
"method": "causal estimate withheld",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_identified",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"Observational promotion data lacks the stated counterfactual safeguards."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 51757.0,
"current_revenue": 54978.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.062233,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.04768,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55574.0,
"current_revenue": 57451.25,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.033779,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.061907,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 57932.0,
"current_revenue": 61499.5,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.061581,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.048006,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61472.0,
"current_revenue": 63061.75,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.025861,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.045961,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 63936.0,
"current_revenue": 67223.75,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.051423,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.03318,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67046.0,
"current_revenue": 69761.25,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.040498,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.038642,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K03"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1448.0,
"K02": 2398.0,
"K03": 1687.0,
"K04": 1856.0,
"K05": 1999.0,
"K06": 2134.0,
"K07": 2264.0,
"K08": 2439.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 373975.5,
"revenue_budget": 380292.48,
"revenue_variance": -6316.98,
"gross_margin_actual": 158650.3,
"gross_margin_budget": 167700.35,
"gross_margin_variance": -9050.05
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"销售增长与贡献额下降同时出现；未提供复购、替代购买和长期客户价值，不能称为盈利增长。",
"Observational promotion data lacks the stated counterfactual safeguards."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 16258.5,
"gross_margin_delta": 959.4,
"contribution_delta": -4195.8,
"revenue_vs_budget": -6316.98,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9050.05,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "profitability_diagnostic",
"description": "拆分促销、商品组合、成本和损耗影响；在贡献额护栏恢复前不扩大促销。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": [
"K02"
],
"duration_days": 7
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Category Manager",
"Finance",
"Promotion Owner"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"新增证据支持净增量贡献为正且可售率与损耗护栏通过后，再议有限试点。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C02",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "ed7ca5033947986f2534229dbd9ead8e0a3ba0064f862fd14286885af9d169eb",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"final_decision": "INVESTIGATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The category shows higher revenue but lower contribution. The accounting bridge reports increased promotion costs and known shrink alongside a small gross-margin gain; this describes the financial movement without establishing K02 promotion causality or net profit.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "K02 promotion might have generated incremental sales, but underlying demand changes, purchase timing or substitution could also explain observed sales. These competing explanations remain unverified because promotion incrementality is not identified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"promo_incrementality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "The supplied checks provide no observed stockout, unexplained inventory exposure or flagged store outlier to explain the contribution decline. They do not exclude process errors or store differences below the detection threshold.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": 16258.5,
"gross_margin_delta": 959.4,
"contribution_delta": -4195.8,
"revenue_vs_budget": -6316.98,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9050.05,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"metric_evidence": {
"revenue_delta": "sales_decomposition",
"gross_margin_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"contribution_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"revenue_vs_budget": "budget",
"gross_margin_vs_budget": "budget",
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": "inventory_anomaly"
},
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The category shows higher revenue but lower contribution. The accounting bridge reports increased promotion costs and known shrink alongside a small gross-margin gain; this describes the financial movement without establishing K02 promotion causality or net profit.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "K02 promotion might have generated incremental sales, but underlying demand changes, purchase timing or substitution could also explain observed sales. These competing explanations remain unverified because promotion incrementality is not identified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"promo_incrementality"
]
},
{
"statement": "The supplied checks provide no observed stockout, unexplained inventory exposure or flagged store outlier to explain the contribution decline. They do not exclude process errors or store differences below the detection threshold.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"decision_reason": {
"statement": "Revenue growth with declining contribution and unidentified promotion effects requires investigation before expansion. Data checks pass and inventory exposure is zero. ACT eligibility is not met: contribution declined, positive incremental contribution is unproven, experimental safeguards are absent, and no pilot authority is supplied.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"promo_incrementality"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "diagnose",
"description": "Propose a human-reviewed analysis limited to K02 and the supplied baseline and current periods: obtain SKU/store/channel contribution and promotion-cost detail, reconcile it to the category totals, and assess what counterfactual evidence could distinguish incremental purchases from demand changes or substitution. Return findings before a human decides whether to expand promotion or approve a separate experiment.",
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"K02-specific contribution and promotion-cost allocation; category totals cannot establish K02 economics.",
"Promotion incremental contribution under a credible counterfactual; the observational evidence does not verify uplift.",
"Whether supplied costs and budgets reflect the correct business processes; file validation alone cannot establish this.",
"Verified, timely and comparable competitor evidence; the supplied competitor signal is unsuitable for commercial inference."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}K07 has the protected need_coverage role. Low sales or budget underperformance alone does not justify delisting.
Recommend retaining K07 pending human review of customer need coverage, equivalent substitutes, budget assumptions and inventory accumulation. No pilot is eligible or authorized.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue and contribution increased, but both revenue and gross margin missed the supplied current-period budgets. Hold the requested K07 delisting to protect need coverage.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "K07 has the protected need_coverage role. Low sales or budget underperformance alone does not justify delisting.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 288016 to 294596; gross margin increased from 128394.40 to 131355.20; contribution increased from 127931 to 130776.60.",
"limitations": "Contribution deducts recorded shrink and promotion costs only; it is not net profit or an estimate of future uplift."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; supplied comparison periods",
"claim": "Recorded stockout hours and book-to-actual closing inventory discrepancies are zero. Supplied data freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold.",
"limitations": "Recorded availability and inventory balances do not independently establish customer need satisfaction or physical inventory accuracy."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS role field and common business contract",
"scope": "K07; all stores and both channels",
"claim": "K07 is designated need_coverage. The contract explicitly requires HOLD for a protected need-coverage SKU requested for delisting.",
"limitations": "Customer requirements and equivalent substitutes are not documented."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Why K07 sales are far below its supplied budget and whether that budget reflects its need-coverage role.",
"Whether alternative products satisfy the same customer needs and what substitution or basket effects delisting would produce.",
"Why inventory is accumulating; holding costs, shelf life and future write-down exposure are not supplied.",
"The causal effects of assortment changes are unidentified by the observational data; parallel trends and no-spillover conditions are unsupported.",
"The competitor signal is unverified and noncomparable, so it provides no usable support for this decision."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 6580,
"gross_margin_delta": 2960.8,
"contribution_delta": 2845.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -83947.54,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -35565.85,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"target_metrics": {
"scope": "K07 only; S01–S06; online and offline; baseline weeks 2026-07-20 through 2026-08-10 versus current weeks 2026-08-17 through 2026-09-07. Closing inventory uses each period's final week. Financial values are CNY excluding VAT.",
"baseline_units": 333,
"current_units": 340,
"baseline_revenue": 12654,
"current_revenue": 12920,
"baseline_gross_margin": 5328,
"current_gross_margin": 5440,
"baseline_contribution": 5152,
"current_contribution": 5352,
"current_revenue_budget": 88417.26,
"current_gross_margin_budget": 37228.32,
"revenue_vs_budget": -75497.26,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -31788.32,
"baseline_ending_inventory_units": 6814,
"current_ending_inventory_units": 10881,
"current_unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "hold_delisting",
"description": "Recommend retaining K07 pending human review of customer need coverage, equivalent substitutes, budget assumptions and inventory accumulation. No pilot is eligible or authorized.",
"scope": {
"skus": [
"K07"
],
"stores": [
"S01",
"S02",
"S03",
"S04",
"S05",
"S06"
],
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"approved_pilot_stores": 0,
"approved_spend_cny": 0
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Own assortment decisions and validate need coverage and substitutes."
},
{
"role": "Finance and inventory planning",
"responsibility": "Review supplied budgets, replenishment assumptions and inventory accumulation."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "Before any delisting decision and at the next complete weekly data refresh.",
"checks": [
"Document the customer needs served and assess equivalent substitutes.",
"Review budget assumptions and replenishment against observed sales.",
"Monitor contribution, stockouts, known shrink and unexplained inventory exposure."
],
"authority": "Delisting, pricing, supplier commitments and execution remain human commercial decisions. Simulated authority grants no real-world execution rights."
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Reconsider HOLD only after human review establishes continued need coverage and a supported economic case for the proposed change.",
"Escalate if source data become invalid, stale or unreconciled, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100.",
"Investigate newly observed availability deterioration or contribution decline before proposing expansion."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"contract_decision": "High: the protected need-coverage rule directly applies.",
"financial_interpretation": "Descriptive and limited to supplied records and contract definitions.",
"causal_or_future_delisting_effect": "Not established."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C05",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "b5399eb2f140fbfb34c1589e341144f5b9fbc8841272a92d3e55c074ee608740",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}目标低销量 SKU 承担独特需求覆盖角色；低销量不足以支持下架。
保留商品结构，采购与品类负责人补充替代性、价格带和需求覆盖证据后再议。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥294,596.00；较基期变化 ¥6,580.00；贡献额变化 ¥2,845.60。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "目标低销量 SKU 承担独特需求覆盖角色；低销量不足以支持下架。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 288016.0,
"current_revenue": 294596.0,
"revenue_delta": 6580.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.022846,
"volume_effect": 6373.01,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": 206.99,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 128394.4,
"current_gross_margin": 131355.2,
"gross_margin_delta": 2960.8,
"baseline_contribution": 127931.0,
"current_contribution": 130776.6,
"contribution_delta": 2845.6,
"quantity_effect": 2960.8,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 41644.0,
"current_revenue": 42604.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.023053,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.029947,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 44559.0,
"current_revenue": 45162.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.013533,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.034707,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 46461.0,
"current_revenue": 48615.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.046361,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.018293,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 49358.0,
"current_revenue": 49932.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.011629,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.021652,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 51784.0,
"current_revenue": 53034.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.024139,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.015397,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 54210.0,
"current_revenue": 55249.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.019166,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.017884,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K07"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1418.0,
"K02": 1560.0,
"K03": 1693.0,
"K04": 1854.0,
"K05": 1989.0,
"K06": 2127.0,
"K07": 340.0,
"K08": 2415.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 294596.0,
"revenue_budget": 378543.54,
"revenue_variance": -83947.54,
"gross_margin_actual": 131355.2,
"gross_margin_budget": 166921.05,
"gross_margin_variance": -35565.85
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"No promotion in scope.",
"结构性角色来自合成商品主数据，真实需求覆盖和替代率仍需验证。"
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 6580.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 2960.8,
"contribution_delta": 2845.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -83947.54,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -35565.85,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "protect_assortment",
"description": "保留商品结构，采购与品类负责人补充替代性、价格带和需求覆盖证据后再议。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": [
"K07"
],
"duration_days": 7
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Category Manager",
"Buying"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"获得经验证的替代商品、消费者覆盖和总品类贡献改善证据，并由人批准后再议下架。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C05",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "b5399eb2f140fbfb34c1589e341144f5b9fbc8841272a92d3e55c074ee608740",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "HOLD",
"final_decision": "HOLD"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "K07's low sales may reflect a specialized customer need consistent with its protected role. The supplied role does not verify customer dependence.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Alternatively, K07 may overlap with substitutes, but low sales alone cannot establish redundancy or predict the contribution and coverage effects of delisting.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Recorded stockouts do not support an availability explanation for K07's low sales; other demand or availability explanations remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"assortment"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": 6580.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 2960.8,
"contribution_delta": 2845.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -83947.54,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -35565.85,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "K07's low sales may reflect a specialized customer need consistent with its protected role. The supplied role does not verify customer dependence.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment"
]
},
{
"statement": "Alternatively, K07 may overlap with substitutes, but low sales alone cannot establish redundancy or predict the contribution and coverage effects of delisting.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment"
]
},
{
"statement": "Recorded stockouts do not support an availability explanation for K07's low sales; other demand or availability explanations remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"assortment"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "HOLD",
"decision_basis": {
"statement": "K07 is explicitly protected for need coverage, so its low sales do not justify delisting. Category contribution increased, while revenue and gross margin remained below supplied budgets; these category results do not establish K07's delisting economics or net profit.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "human_review",
"description": "Propose a review limited to K07: validate its protected customer need, assess whether available substitutes meet that need, and obtain SKU-level contribution and substitution evidence before reconsidering delisting. Maintain the current listing pending human decision.",
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether K07's supplied protected role accurately reflects current customer needs.",
"Whether substitutes preserve coverage and how customers would respond to delisting.",
"K07-specific contribution and the incremental category contribution effect of delisting.",
"Whether budget allocation assumptions explain the category shortfalls; supplied variances do not identify their cause."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}A missing revenue value and an inventory continuity discrepancy trigger the contract's data-quality escalation rule.
Refer the missing revenue and inventory continuity discrepancy to the responsible humans for reconciliation before commercial interpretation. Financial comparison fields are withheld pending validation, not treated as zero or mathematically incalculable. Keep unknown inventory discrepancy separate from contribution. No pilot or commercial change is proposed.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Source data is unreconciled; commercial interpretation should wait for validation.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "A missing revenue value and an inventory continuity discrepancy trigger the contract's data-quality escalation rule.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "pos_csv",
"scope": "2026-08-17; S01; K01; online",
"claim": "Revenue is blank. Supplied sales and price imply 21 × 28 = CNY 588; the supplied gross margin of CNY 273 agrees with 21 × (28 − 15).",
"limitations": "Arithmetic reconstruction does not confirm or correct the source record."
},
{
"source": "pos_csv",
"scope": "2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24; S01; K01; online",
"claim": "Book closing inventory is 513 units and actual closing inventory is 517 units. The next week's opening inventory is 513 units, leaving the four-unit surplus unreconciled.",
"limitations": "No adjustment or explanation is supplied; the discrepancy does not establish a loss or its cause."
},
{
"source": "pos_csv",
"scope": "All SKUs, all six stores, both channels; all current four-week records",
"claim": "Summing supplied book-minus-actual closing discrepancies at unit cost gives CNY -60: (513 − 517) × 15. All other current records show matching book and actual closing inventory.",
"limitations": "This is signed arithmetic across the supplied current-week records, not confirmed shrink, income, or evidence that the discrepancy was resolved."
},
{
"source": "pos_csv and business_context",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; baseline and current comparison periods",
"claim": "Recorded stockout hours and promotion costs are zero. Declared data freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold.",
"limitations": "Freshness does not resolve source inconsistencies; recorded zero stockouts do not independently prove complete customer need coverage."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Why the revenue field is missing and whether its arithmetic reconstruction matches the authoritative transaction record.",
"Whether the inventory surplus reflects counting, timing, receipt, adjustment, or recording issues.",
"Whether additional source corrections would change the financial comparison.",
"Causes of commercial performance changes; the observational design does not establish causality.",
"Competitor relevance: the supplied signal is unverified and noncomparable."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": null,
"gross_margin_delta": null,
"contribution_delta": null,
"revenue_vs_budget": null,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": null,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": -60.0
},
"DECISION": "ESCALATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "proposed_source_reconciliation",
"description": "Refer the missing revenue and inventory continuity discrepancy to the responsible humans for reconciliation before commercial interpretation. Financial comparison fields are withheld pending validation, not treated as zero or mathematically incalculable. Keep unknown inventory discrepancy separate from contribution. No pilot or commercial change is proposed.",
"scope": {
"validation": "All supplied records across both four-week periods",
"flagged_records": "S01/K01/online, weeks 2026-08-17 and 2026-08-24",
"commercial_decision_rights": "Delisting, pricing, supplier commitments, and execution remain human decisions.",
"authorized_execution_stores": 0,
"authorized_execution_spend_cny": 0
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "POS data owner and finance",
"responsibility": "Validate the missing revenue and release reconciled financial totals."
},
{
"role": "Inventory control and store operations",
"responsibility": "Reconcile the count difference and subsequent opening balance without attributing blame."
},
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Review commercial implications after validation and protect need coverage."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"trigger": "Receipt of corrected or explicitly reconciled source records",
"checks": [
"Validate completeness, unique record keys, revenue, gross margin, known shrink, and inventory continuity.",
"Recompute all six P&L fields over the canonical scope using supplied current budgets only.",
"Reapply decision priorities after validation; do not infer net profit, future uplift, or causality."
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Clear the data-quality escalation only after the revenue record and inventory continuity are reconciled and the comparison is recomputed.",
"A reconciled review does not authorize execution; any subsequent commercial action requires the appropriate human decision."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"escalation": "High: directly supported by the supplied records and decision priority.",
"commercial_interpretation": "Withheld pending reconciliation.",
"inventory_exposure": "High confidence in the supplied-record arithmetic; unresolved confidence in the underlying inventory accuracy."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C07",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "2e150d2e8b6e1453d74aaf77b0896b7699ac6ec21586883f35f28cad14dec65d",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}数据完整性、财务对账或时效未通过，经营归因暂停。
数据负责人核对原始 POS、库存与会计口径，修正后重新运行；当前数字不作为经营结论。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "输入未通过验证，暂停经营结论。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "数据完整性、财务对账或时效未通过，经营归因暂停。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": false,
"issues": [
"row 384 invalid numeric revenue",
"row 384 actual inventory exceeds book inventory",
"inventory carry-forward mismatch for S01/K01/online"
]
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "unavailable",
"method": "suppressed because data quality is invalid",
"metrics": {
"unavailable": true
},
"limitations": [
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"Repair or reconcile source data before quantitative interpretation.",
"row 384 invalid numeric revenue",
"row 384 actual inventory exceeds book inventory",
"inventory carry-forward mismatch for S01/K01/online"
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": null,
"gross_margin_delta": null,
"contribution_delta": null,
"revenue_vs_budget": null,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": null,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": null,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "ESCALATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "reconcile_data",
"description": "数据负责人核对原始 POS、库存与会计口径，修正后重新运行；当前数字不作为经营结论。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": "case scope",
"duration_days": 1
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Data Owner",
"Finance",
"Category Manager"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-20",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 1,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"数据质量验证全部通过且时效恢复至约定窗口，才重新开放建议。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "LOW",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C07",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "2e150d2e8b6e1453d74aaf77b0896b7699ac6ec21586883f35f28cad14dec65d",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "ESCALATE",
"final_decision": "ESCALATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "An entry, parsing, or export error could explain the invalid revenue and inventory inconsistencies; this explanation is unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Alternatively, inventory timing or reconciliation problems could explain the inventory inconsistencies. The checks do not establish their cause or imply theft.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "An entry, parsing, or export error could explain the invalid revenue and inventory inconsistencies; this explanation is unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality"
]
},
{
"statement": "Alternatively, inventory timing or reconciliation problems could explain the inventory inconsistencies. The checks do not establish their cause or imply theft.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "ESCALATE",
"proposed_action": {
"type": "human_review",
"description": "Request source-owner review of row 384's invalid revenue and actual inventory exceeding book inventory, plus the S01/K01/online inventory carry-forward mismatch. Reconcile these records against underlying records and rerun validation before commercial interpretation. No commercial change is proposed.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality"
],
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"financial_scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": null,
"gross_margin_delta": null,
"contribution_delta": null,
"revenue_vs_budget": null,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": null,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": null,
"financial_availability": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "Invalid source data caused quantitative outputs to be suppressed. Null values do not mean zero; inventory exposure cannot be assessed against the escalation threshold.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"budget"
]
},
"unknowns": [
"The correct revenue value for row 384 and the origin of its invalid numeric value.",
"The reconciled book and actual inventory for row 384.",
"The cause and resolution of the S01/K01/online carry-forward mismatch.",
"Whether repaired data passes validation and supports complete all-category financial and availability evidence."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}The accounting comparison shows margin compression: SKU prices increased 17%, while supplied unit costs increased approximately 32%. Total units sold declined from 14,943 to 14,735. These observations do not establish why sales or costs changed.
Review the price, unit-cost, sales-mix and known-shrink contributions to the decline before considering expansion. Validate commercial explanations with the responsible people while protecting availability and K07 need coverage. Price changes, delisting, supplier commitments and execution remain human decisions. No pilot is proposed: the request, authority, experiment and contribution guardrail do not meet ACT eligibility.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Revenue increased, but gross margin and contribution declined. Recorded availability remained stable, with no unexplained inventory exposure.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "The accounting comparison shows margin compression: SKU prices increased 17%, while supplied unit costs increased approximately 32%. Total units sold declined from 14,943 to 14,735. These observations do not establish why sales or costs changed.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 359,297.00 to CNY 413,150.40; gross margin decreased from CNY 158,390.80 to CNY 152,635.72.",
"limitations": "Historical accounting comparison; not a causal estimate or forecast."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; both four-week periods",
"claim": "Known shrink increased from CNY 463.40 to CNY 763.72. Promotion costs were zero. Contribution therefore decreased from CNY 157,927.40 to CNY 151,872.00.",
"limitations": "Contribution follows the supplied definition and is not net profit. Causes of known shrink are not established."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV budget columns",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks only",
"claim": "Supplied revenue budget totals CNY 379,137.85 and gross-margin budget totals CNY 167,213.70. Actual revenue exceeded budget, while actual gross margin fell short.",
"limitations": "Uses only supplied current-period budgets; their planning assumptions are unknown."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "All supplied SKU-store-channel records and declared data freshness",
"claim": "Recorded stockout rates were zero in both periods. Current book and actual closing inventories match, giving zero unexplained inventory exposure. Declared freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold.",
"limitations": "Recorded stockouts and inventory counts do not independently prove complete customer need coverage or physical stock accuracy."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Reasons for the price and unit-cost increases, including underlying supplier terms.",
"Whether the decline in units reflects price sensitivity, seasonality, customer mix, or other influences.",
"Causes of known shrink and whether the higher contribution costs will persist.",
"Competitor evidence is unverified and noncomparable, so it cannot support commercial recommendations.",
"The observational design does not identify causal effects; no promotion effect or future incremental contribution is established."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 53853.4,
"gross_margin_delta": -5755.08,
"contribution_delta": -6055.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": 34012.55,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -14577.98,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "proposed_commercial_review",
"description": "Review the price, unit-cost, sales-mix and known-shrink contributions to the decline before considering expansion. Validate commercial explanations with the responsible people while protecting availability and K07 need coverage. Price changes, delisting, supplier commitments and execution remain human decisions. No pilot is proposed: the request, authority, experiment and contribution guardrail do not meet ACT eligibility.",
"scope": {
"skus": "K01–K08",
"stores": "S01–S06",
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"baseline_week_starts": [
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-10"
],
"current_week_starts": [
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-07"
],
"financial_unit": "CNY excluding VAT",
"execution_authority": "None"
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Category manager",
"responsibility": "Own the proposed review and any subsequent human commercial decision."
},
{
"role": "Finance",
"responsibility": "Validate the financial bridge and supplied budget comparison."
},
{
"role": "Procurement and store operations",
"responsibility": "Explain cost changes and investigate known shrink while monitoring availability."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "At the next human category review, before any expansion or commercial change.",
"required_evidence": "Validated financial bridge, documented cost explanations and review of known shrink.",
"monitor": [
"Category contribution and gross margin versus supplied budget",
"SKU-store-channel stockouts and protected need coverage",
"Inventory reconciliation and unexplained exposure"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"ESCALATE if source data become invalid, stale or unreconciled, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100.",
"Move to HOLD and monitoring when the contribution deterioration is understood and no investigation trigger remains.",
"Consider ACT only after every contractual eligibility condition is met and a bounded proposal receives human approval."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"financial_comparison": "High within the supplied synthetic records and contractual definitions.",
"decision": "High: revenue growth alongside contribution decline explicitly requires INVESTIGATE.",
"causal_explanation": "Low: the supplied observational evidence cannot establish causes."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C01",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "ca0af1eddd56016319b4fa61c465c5cf92fc7b0f0a2e108c4c629dfb84b5ef54",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}销售额上升而扣除已知损耗与促销费用后的贡献额下降，单一营收 KPI 失真。
拆分促销、商品组合、成本和损耗影响；在贡献额护栏恢复前不扩大促销。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥413,150.40；较基期变化 ¥53,853.40；贡献额变化 ¥-6,055.40。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "销售额上升而扣除已知损耗与促销费用后的贡献额下降，单一营收 KPI 失真。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 359297.0,
"current_revenue": 413150.4,
"revenue_delta": 53853.4,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.149885,
"volume_effect": -5001.26,
"price_effect": 60030.4,
"mix_effect": -1175.74,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 158390.8,
"current_gross_margin": 152635.72,
"gross_margin_delta": -5755.08,
"baseline_contribution": 157927.4,
"current_contribution": 151872.0,
"contribution_delta": -6055.4,
"quantity_effect": -2635.8,
"price_effect": 60030.4,
"unit_cost_effect": -63149.68,
"known_shrink_delta": 300.32,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 763.72,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": null,
"target_current_stockout_rate": null,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 763.72,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52665.0,
"current_revenue": 60030.36,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.139853,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.162447,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55003.0,
"current_revenue": 64090.26,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.165214,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.149766,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58160.0,
"current_revenue": 67446.99,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.15968,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.152533,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61198.0,
"current_revenue": 70061.94,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.14484,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.14551,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 64641.0,
"current_revenue": 73981.44,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.144497,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.145682,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67630.0,
"current_revenue": 77539.41,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.146524,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.144668,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1360.0,
"K02": 1508.0,
"K03": 1658.0,
"K04": 1780.0,
"K05": 1899.0,
"K06": 2027.0,
"K07": 2168.0,
"K08": 2335.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 413150.4,
"revenue_budget": 379137.85,
"revenue_variance": 34012.55,
"gross_margin_actual": 152635.72,
"gross_margin_budget": 167213.7,
"gross_margin_variance": -14577.98
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"销售增长与贡献额下降同时出现；未提供复购、替代购买和长期客户价值，不能称为盈利增长。",
"No promotion in scope."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 53853.4,
"gross_margin_delta": -5755.08,
"contribution_delta": -6055.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": 34012.55,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -14577.98,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "profitability_diagnostic",
"description": "拆分促销、商品组合、成本和损耗影响；在贡献额护栏恢复前不扩大促销。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": "case scope",
"duration_days": 7
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Category Manager",
"Finance",
"Promotion Owner"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"新增证据支持净增量贡献为正且可售率与损耗护栏通过后，再议有限试点。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C01",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "ca0af1eddd56016319b4fa61c465c5cf92fc7b0f0a2e108c4c629dfb84b5ef54",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"final_decision": "INVESTIGATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Revenue growth is consistent with higher realized prices rather than increased unit volume: the supplied bridge reports a positive price effect and negative volume and mix effects. This does not establish customer demand or a causal response to pricing.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Higher supplied unit costs may reflect purchasing-cost pressure; alternatively, cost allocation or recording timing may explain part of the movement. The negative unit-cost bridge effect exceeds the positive price effect, but neither underlying explanation is verified. Negative quantity effects and increased booked shrink also appear in the contribution bridge.",
"evidence_ids": [
"margin_decomposition",
"quality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "A broadly shared commercial or accounting change is plausible because no store revenue outliers were flagged. Local margin problems remain a competing possibility because the comparison measures revenue, uses only two peers per store, and does not establish store-level contribution patterns. Recorded stockouts and unexplained inventory discrepancies provide no supporting evidence for those explanations.",
"evidence_ids": [
"store_cluster_compare",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"recommended_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"decision_reason": "Revenue increased while contribution declined, which requires investigation before expansion. Supplied checks passed, data freshness is within the limit, accounting bridges reconcile, and unexplained inventory exposure is zero. These checks do not establish that underlying business processes are correct.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"financial_scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": 53853.4,
"gross_margin_delta": -5755.08,
"contribution_delta": -6055.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": 34012.55,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -14577.98,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence": {
"revenue_delta": "sales_decomposition",
"gross_margin_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"contribution_delta": "margin_decomposition",
"revenue_vs_budget": "budget",
"gross_margin_vs_budget": "budget",
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": "inventory_anomaly"
},
"financial_interpretation": "Revenue growth is not evidence of improved profitability. Supplied contribution excludes unexplained inventory exposure and is not net profit.",
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Revenue growth is consistent with higher realized prices rather than increased unit volume: the supplied bridge reports a positive price effect and negative volume and mix effects. This does not establish customer demand or a causal response to pricing.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "Higher supplied unit costs may reflect purchasing-cost pressure; alternatively, cost allocation or recording timing may explain part of the movement. The negative unit-cost bridge effect exceeds the positive price effect, but neither underlying explanation is verified. Negative quantity effects and increased booked shrink also appear in the contribution bridge.",
"evidence_ids": [
"margin_decomposition",
"quality"
]
},
{
"statement": "A broadly shared commercial or accounting change is plausible because no store revenue outliers were flagged. Local margin problems remain a competing possibility because the comparison measures revenue, uses only two peers per store, and does not establish store-level contribution patterns. Recorded stockouts and unexplained inventory discrepancies provide no supporting evidence for those explanations.",
"evidence_ids": [
"store_cluster_compare",
"inventory_anomaly"
]
}
],
"proposed_action": {
"type": "diagnose",
"description": "Propose one review limited to the supplied baseline and current periods: trace the reported unit-cost movement to SKU-level cost records, invoices and accounting dates; examine existing SKU/store/channel contribution detail alongside price, quantity and booked shrink; and confirm budget allocation assumptions. Return verified findings and unresolved explanations for human review before any commercial change. Protect K07 need coverage; low sales alone do not justify delisting.",
"evidence_ids": [
"margin_decomposition",
"sales_decomposition",
"budget",
"assortment"
],
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether unit-cost movements represent purchasing changes, accounting timing, allocation changes, or errors.",
"Which SKU/store/channel segments account for contribution deterioration.",
"Whether quantity and mix movements reflect seasonality, customer response, or other factors; observational evidence cannot distinguish these causes.",
"Budget ownership and allocation assumptions.",
"Competitor comparability and source verification are absent. No promotion observations or eligible experiment support incremental contribution claims, and pilot authority is absent."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}At unchanged prices and unit costs, higher recorded sales volumes explain the observed financial increase. The cause of those volume changes is unknown.
Recommend retaining the current price pending verified, comparable competitor evidence and an assessment of incremental contribution and availability. Review budget shortfalls. Any price change remains a human commercial decision; no action or pilot is authorized or executed.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue and contribution increased, while revenue and gross margin remained below supplied budgets. The evidence does not support the requested K01 price match.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "At unchanged prices and unit costs, higher recorded sales volumes explain the observed financial increase. The cause of those volume changes is unknown.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 362132.00 to 371245.00; gross margin from 159626.80 to 163677.80; contribution from 159163.40 to 163099.20. Known shrink increased from 463.40 to 578.60; promotion costs were zero.",
"limitations": "These are descriptive accounting comparisons, not causal effects, net profit, or forecasts."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks",
"claim": "Supplied revenue budget totals CNY 382382.35 and gross-margin budget totals 168588.25. Recorded stockout hours and book-to-actual inventory discrepancies are zero.",
"limitations": "Availability and inventory conclusions depend on the supplied records; budget-setting assumptions are not supplied."
},
{
"source": "Supplied business context",
"scope": "Competitor signal associated with the K01 price-match request",
"claim": "The signal dated 2026-09-17 is explicitly unverified and non-comparable; no competitor price is supplied.",
"limitations": "It cannot establish a comparable price gap or justify a matching price."
},
{
"source": "Supplied business context and common business contract",
"scope": "Decision eligibility",
"claim": "Declared data freshness is two days, within the seven-day limit. The design is observational, required experimental safeguards are unsupported, and no pilot or execution authority exists.",
"limitations": "Fresh data and positive historical contribution do not establish incremental price-match economics or satisfy ACT eligibility."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Verified competitor price, matching product specification, pack size, quality, channel, location, timing, and promotional conditions.",
"Demand elasticity and incremental contribution under any proposed matching price.",
"Causes of sales-volume changes and budget shortfalls."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 9113.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 4051.0,
"contribution_delta": 3935.8,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11137.35,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4910.45,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "hold_price_match",
"description": "Recommend retaining the current price pending verified, comparable competitor evidence and an assessment of incremental contribution and availability. Review budget shortfalls. Any price change remains a human commercial decision; no action or pilot is authorized or executed.",
"scope": {
"sku_ids": [
"K01"
],
"stores": [
"S01",
"S02",
"S03",
"S04",
"S05",
"S06"
],
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
]
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Category manager",
"responsibility": "Own the commercial pricing decision and protect customer need coverage."
},
{
"role": "Pricing analyst",
"responsibility": "Validate competitor comparability and assess proposed pricing economics."
},
{
"role": "Finance and inventory owners",
"responsibility": "Review budget variances and maintain inventory reconciliation."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "At the next category review, or earlier when verified competitor evidence becomes available.",
"measures": [
"Full-category contribution and supplied-budget variances",
"Availability and unexplained inventory exposure",
"Comparable competitor pricing and estimated incremental contribution"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Reconsider HOLD when verified comparable pricing and credible incremental economics are available; human approval remains necessary.",
"ESCALATE if source data become invalid, stale, or unreconciled, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100.",
"INVESTIGATE before expansion if revenue growth accompanies contribution decline or availability deterioration."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"financial_comparison": "High within the supplied synthetic records and contract definitions.",
"hold_recommendation": "High under the supplied evidence and authority constraints.",
"causal_or_future_price_match_benefit": "Not established."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C08",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "4458286db676b6c9112f052d0e12a6fd73541bd79ce10ecce5735077c3fe6371",
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}竞品信息未核实或缺少同规格同时间可比证据。
市场与采购核实来源、时间、规格、价格口径和影响，再提交品类负责人审批。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥371,425.00；较基期变化 ¥10,019.00；贡献额变化 ¥4,320.20。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "竞品信息未核实或缺少同规格同时间可比证据。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 361406.0,
"current_revenue": 371425.0,
"revenue_delta": 10019.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.027722,
"volume_effect": 9732.01,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": 286.99,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 159312.4,
"current_gross_margin": 163747.8,
"gross_margin_delta": 4435.4,
"baseline_contribution": 158849.0,
"current_contribution": 163169.2,
"contribution_delta": 4320.2,
"quantity_effect": 4435.4,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": 0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52824.0,
"current_revenue": 54028.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.022793,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.027209,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55979.0,
"current_revenue": 57419.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.025724,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.025743,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58935.0,
"current_revenue": 60626.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.028693,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.024259,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61155.0,
"current_revenue": 63243.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.034143,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.027199,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 64586.0,
"current_revenue": 66500.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.029635,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.029452,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67927.0,
"current_revenue": 69609.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.024762,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.031889,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1423.0,
"K02": 1551.0,
"K03": 1703.0,
"K04": 1861.0,
"K05": 2016.0,
"K06": 2137.0,
"K07": 2314.0,
"K08": 2440.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 371425.0,
"revenue_budget": 382567.75,
"revenue_variance": -11142.75,
"gross_margin_actual": 163747.8,
"gross_margin_budget": 168660.35,
"gross_margin_variance": -4912.55
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"No promotion in scope.",
"竞品信号不构成直接调价依据；缺少价格弹性和全品类影响评估。"
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 10019.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 4435.4,
"contribution_delta": 4320.2,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11142.75,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4912.55,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "verify_market_signal",
"description": "市场与采购核实来源、时间、规格、价格口径和影响，再提交品类负责人审批。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": [
"K01"
],
"duration_days": 7
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Market Insights",
"Buying",
"Category Manager"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"可靠可比市场证据与经济性评估齐备且负责人批准，再评估价格或商品变更。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C08",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "4458286db676b6c9112f052d0e12a6fd73541bd79ce10ecce5735077c3fe6371",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "HOLD",
"final_decision": "HOLD"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Broad-based sales growth is consistent with the category results: the supplied bridge attributes revenue growth to volume and mix, and no store outliers were detected. Underlying demand drivers remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "K01's low unit-sales ranking could reflect its assortment role or customer preferences; a competitive price disadvantage is an alternative, unverified explanation. The ranking and category-level price bridge cannot distinguish these explanations or justify price matching.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"sales_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "The budget shortfalls could reflect ambitious budget assumptions or weaker-than-planned performance despite positive period-over-period contribution. Supplied data do not distinguish these explanations or establish net profitability.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": 10019.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 4435.4,
"contribution_delta": 4320.2,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11142.75,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4912.55,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Broad-based sales growth is consistent with the category results: the supplied bridge attributes revenue growth to volume and mix, and no store outliers were detected. Underlying demand drivers remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"store_cluster_compare"
]
},
{
"statement": "K01's low unit-sales ranking could reflect its assortment role or customer preferences; a competitive price disadvantage is an alternative, unverified explanation. The ranking and category-level price bridge cannot distinguish these explanations or justify price matching.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"sales_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "The budget shortfalls could reflect ambitious budget assumptions or weaker-than-planned performance despite positive period-over-period contribution. Supplied data do not distinguish these explanations or establish net profitability.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"margin_decomposition"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "HOLD",
"decision_reason": "Hold the requested K01 price match. The competitor signal is explicitly unverified and noncomparable. Supplied checks pass, freshness is within threshold, contribution increased, and recorded stockouts and unexplained inventory exposure are zero. No mandatory escalation or expansion-investigation trigger is established. ACT eligibility is not met, and pricing remains a human decision.",
"decision_evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"proposed_action": {
"type": "human_review",
"description": "Propose a review limited to K01: verify the competitor source, observation timing, exact product and pack size, channel, and offer conditions. Then obtain K01-specific pricing and contribution evidence for human assessment before considering any price change.",
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether a verified, contemporaneous, comparable competitor offer establishes a K01 price gap.",
"K01-specific baseline performance, price sensitivity, substitution effects, and contribution consequences of a price match.",
"Whether budget assumptions and allocations explain the shortfalls.",
"The observational evidence does not identify causal uplift; no qualifying experiment or pilot approval is supplied."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}K03 offline accounts for the largest observed financial decline. Lower sales coincide with reported stockouts and reduced receipts, but the data do not establish causality.
Recommend reconciling stockout timestamps with shelf checks, usable inventory, channel allocation, receipts, and replenishment records. Establish the availability explanation before interpreting sales as demand or proposing commercial changes. ACT eligibility is not met: this is a review request, pilot authority is absent, experimental safeguards are absent, and positive incremental contribution is unestablished.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue and contribution declined, and reported availability deteriorated. Investigate before making commercial changes.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "K03 offline accounts for the largest observed financial decline. Lower sales coincide with reported stockouts and reduced receipts, but the data do not establish causality.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue decreased from CNY 361256 to 358447; gross margin decreased from 159296.60 to 157440.30; contribution decreased from 158833.20 to 156861.70. Known shrink increased from 463.40 to 578.60, and promotion costs were zero.",
"limitations": "Contribution follows the supplied definition and is not net profit. These are descriptive comparisons."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks",
"claim": "Supplied revenue budget totals CNY 379071.93 and gross-margin budget totals 167099.40. Recorded book and actual closing inventory agree.",
"limitations": "Inventory agreement does not establish shelf availability or inventory usability."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; stockout hours divided by summed SKU-store-channel open hours",
"claim": "Reported stockout rate increased from zero to 3.2366%, exceeding the 3-percentage-point increase threshold.",
"limitations": "This measures recorded SKU availability, not the proportion of store operating time affected or lost customer demand."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "K03 across all supplied stores and weeks, with channels examined separately",
"claim": "The sales decline is concentrated offline, where stockouts are reported despite positive closing inventory. Declining demand is not established.",
"limitations": "Weekly closing balances cannot identify intr-week shelf conditions. The experiment is observational and lacks the supplied causal-identification safeguards."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Whether reported stockouts reflect shelf replenishment, inaccessible or unusable inventory, channel allocation, timing, or recording errors.",
"Underlying unconstrained demand, customer substitution, and the amount of recoverable sales or contribution.",
"Reasons for reduced offline receipts and increased known shrink.",
"Competitor relevance: the supplied signal is unverified and noncomparable and cannot support a commercial recommendation."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": -2809.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -1856.3,
"contribution_delta": -1971.5,
"revenue_vs_budget": -20624.93,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9659.1,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0
},
"target_metrics": {
"scope": "K03; S01–S06; both channels; current weeks 2026-08-17 through 2026-09-07 versus baseline weeks 2026-07-20 through 2026-08-10; financial amounts in CNY",
"baseline_units": 1685,
"current_units": 1102,
"revenue_delta": -9328.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -4664.0,
"contribution_delta": -4728.0,
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.258929,
"offline": {
"scope": "K03; S01–S06; offline only; same four-week comparison",
"baseline_units": 876,
"current_units": 319,
"revenue_delta": -8912.0,
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_hours": 1392,
"current_open_hours": 2688,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.517857
}
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "proposed_availability_and_inventory_review",
"description": "Recommend reconciling stockout timestamps with shelf checks, usable inventory, channel allocation, receipts, and replenishment records. Establish the availability explanation before interpreting sales as demand or proposing commercial changes. ACT eligibility is not met: this is a review request, pilot authority is absent, experimental safeguards are absent, and positive incremental contribution is unestablished.",
"scope": {
"sku": "K03",
"stores": [
"S01",
"S02",
"S03",
"S04",
"S05",
"S06"
],
"channels": [
"offline",
"online"
],
"focus": "Offline availability, using online records for context",
"authorized_execution_stores": 0,
"authorized_spend_cny": 0
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Category manager",
"responsibility": "Retains decisions on assortment, pricing, supplier commitments, and any proposed pilot."
},
{
"role": "Store operations and inventory/data owners",
"responsibility": "Proposed reviewers of availability records, physical usability, replenishment, and inventory reconciliation."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "After record reconciliation and at the next complete weekly availability review",
"checks": [
"Resolve reported stockouts alongside positive closing inventory.",
"Recalculate category contribution and availability using validated records.",
"Protect customer need coverage, including the designated need-coverage SKU.",
"Escalate before further commercial interpretation if source data prove invalid or unreconciled."
],
"freshness": "Supplied freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold."
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"If availability records are invalid, change the decision to ESCALATE pending reconciliation.",
"If unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100, ESCALATE without attributing it to theft or personnel.",
"If validated availability stabilizes and no investigation trigger remains, reconsider HOLD and monitor.",
"Consider ACT only after every contractual eligibility condition and human approval requirement is satisfied."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"descriptive_financial_findings": "High",
"reported_availability_pattern": "High",
"root_cause_or_future_uplift": "Low; not identified by the supplied evidence"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C03",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "de4fff85641cc92a11c7ec63c1c5b67f6750f37a992f4944f8abb50999e10758",
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}可售时段下降与销售变化同时出现；不能直接认定消费者需求下降。
门店与供应核查缺货 SKU 的收货、货架和线上可售状态，优先验证供应约束。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥358,005.00；较基期变化 ¥-1,695.00；贡献额变化 ¥-1,424.40。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "可售时段下降与销售变化同时出现；不能直接认定消费者需求下降。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 359700.0,
"current_revenue": 358005.0,
"revenue_delta": -1695.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.004712,
"volume_effect": -6388.48,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": 4693.48,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 158566.5,
"current_gross_margin": 157257.3,
"gross_margin_delta": -1309.2,
"baseline_contribution": 158103.1,
"current_contribution": 156678.7,
"contribution_delta": -1424.4,
"quantity_effect": -1309.2,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.032366,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_current_stockout_rate": 0.258929,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.258929,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.032366,
"S02": 0.032366,
"S03": 0.032366,
"S04": 0.032366,
"S05": 0.032366,
"S06": 0.032366
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52094.0,
"current_revenue": 51724.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.007103,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.006693,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55725.0,
"current_revenue": 55508.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.003894,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.008298,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58253.0,
"current_revenue": 57700.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.009493,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.005498,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61503.0,
"current_revenue": 61828.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.005284,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.006622,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 64308.0,
"current_revenue": 63973.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.005209,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.001376,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67817.0,
"current_revenue": 67272.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.008036,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 3.7e-05,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K03"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1389.0,
"K02": 1549.0,
"K03": 1102.0,
"K04": 1836.0,
"K05": 1975.0,
"K06": 2158.0,
"K07": 2277.0,
"K08": 2425.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 358005.0,
"revenue_budget": 378616.67,
"revenue_variance": -20611.67,
"gross_margin_actual": 157257.3,
"gross_margin_budget": 166910.91,
"gross_margin_variance": -9653.61
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"缺货与销售变化相关；潜在需求、供应中断与门店补货原因尚不能分离。",
"No promotion in scope."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": -1695.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -1309.2,
"contribution_delta": -1424.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": -20611.67,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9653.61,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "availability_diagnostic",
"description": "门店与供应核查缺货 SKU 的收货、货架和线上可售状态，优先验证供应约束。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": [
"K03"
],
"duration_days": 2
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Store Ops",
"Supply",
"Category Manager"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-21",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 2,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"恢复可售率后仍持续销售下滑，重新检验需求和竞品假设。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C03",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "de4fff85641cc92a11c7ec63c1c5b67f6750f37a992f4944f8abb50999e10758",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"final_decision": "INVESTIGATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "K03's low recorded sales may reflect constrained availability rather than weak customer demand. Its stockout rate is 0.258929, but the evidence does not establish lost sales or causality.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Weak demand or substitution could also contribute to K03's low sales. Sales during available hours and customer substitution evidence are missing, so these competing explanations remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"sales_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Identical aggregate stockout rates across stores suggest investigating a shared replenishment issue or a common measurement issue. Neither explanation is verified; valid accounting checks and no detected store outliers do not establish operational accuracy.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"recommended_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": -1695.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -1309.2,
"contribution_delta": -1424.4,
"revenue_vs_budget": -20611.67,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -9653.61,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"target_metrics": {
"scope": "K03; all stores and both channels; current four weeks",
"current_units": 1102.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.258929,
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"inventory_anomaly"
]
},
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "K03's low recorded sales may reflect constrained availability rather than weak customer demand. Its stockout rate is 0.258929, but the evidence does not establish lost sales or causality.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"inventory_anomaly"
]
},
{
"statement": "Weak demand or substitution could also contribute to K03's low sales. Sales during available hours and customer substitution evidence are missing, so these competing explanations remain unverified.",
"evidence_ids": [
"assortment",
"sales_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "Identical aggregate stockout rates across stores suggest investigating a shared replenishment issue or a common measurement issue. Neither explanation is verified; valid accounting checks and no detected store outliers do not establish operational accuracy.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality",
"store_cluster_compare"
]
}
],
"decision_basis": {
"statement": "Category availability deteriorated from a stockout rate of 0.0 to 0.032366, exceeding the 0.03 increase threshold, while contribution declined. Investigate availability before expansion. Supplied quality checks pass and unexplained inventory exposure is zero, so those escalation triggers are absent. The financial figures do not establish net profit or causal uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"inventory_anomaly",
"margin_decomposition"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "diagnose",
"description": "Propose a review of K03's existing four-week records across the six stores, keeping channel inventory pools separate. Reconcile stockout timestamps with receipts, replenishment records and shelf availability, then compare sales during available hours to assess the competing explanations. Return findings for human review before any commercial change. Pilot eligibility is not met.",
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether recorded stockout hours match actual customer-facing availability.",
"Whether replenishment delays, allocation or shelf execution explain the availability loss.",
"K03 demand during available hours and customer substitution when unavailable.",
"Incremental contribution from a remedy; the observational evidence cannot establish it."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "original"
}
}The accounting change reflects higher aggregate unit sales at unchanged SKU prices and unit costs. Increased known shrink partly offsets gross-margin growth; the underlying demand causes are unknown.
Recommend maintaining the current commercial setup and monitoring contribution, budget gaps, inventory age and availability. Preserve need-coverage SKU K07. No pilot meets the contract's eligibility conditions.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Revenue and contribution increased, while revenue and gross margin remained below supplied budgets. No recorded availability deterioration or unexplained inventory exposure.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "The accounting change reflects higher aggregate unit sales at unchanged SKU prices and unit costs. Increased known shrink partly offsets gross-margin growth; the underlying demand causes are unknown.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied raw POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, all six stores, both channels; baseline four weeks versus current four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 359694.00 to 368390.00; gross margin from 158532.60 to 162442.40; contribution from 158069.20 to 161863.80. Known shrink increased from 463.40 to 578.60. Recorded promotion costs were zero.",
"limitations": "Descriptive accounting comparisons establish neither causality nor net profit."
},
{
"source": "Supplied raw POS CSV budget columns",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks only",
"claim": "Supplied revenue budget totals CNY 379441.70 and gross-margin budget totals 167315.79. Actuals fall below both budgets.",
"limitations": "Budget construction and commercial assumptions are not supplied. Totals use supplied row-level budgets, including their rounding."
},
{
"source": "Supplied raw POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; both comparison periods",
"claim": "Recorded stockout hours are zero in both periods. Current book and actual closing inventories agree, producing zero unexplained inventory exposure.",
"limitations": "Recorded availability does not establish complete customer-need satisfaction; inventory agreement does not establish freshness or saleability."
},
{
"source": "Supplied business context",
"scope": "C10 review as of 2026-09-19",
"claim": "Declared data freshness is two days, within the seven-day threshold. The request is a review, with no approved pilot authority.",
"limitations": "Freshness is supplied metadata. Competitor information is unverified and noncomparable and is excluded from commercial conclusions."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Causes and persistence of the observed sales changes.",
"Reasons for the budget shortfalls and the assumptions underlying those budgets.",
"Inventory age, expiry risk and coverage of customer needs beyond recorded stockouts.",
"Incremental contribution from any proposed intervention; the observational design does not identify causal effects."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 8696.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 3909.8,
"contribution_delta": 3794.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "hold_and_monitor",
"description": "Recommend maintaining the current commercial setup and monitoring contribution, budget gaps, inventory age and availability. Preserve need-coverage SKU K07. No pilot meets the contract's eligibility conditions.",
"scope": {
"skus": "all",
"stores": "S01-S06",
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"commercial_changes": "none proposed"
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Own assortment, pricing, supplier commitments and any commercial execution decision."
},
{
"role": "Finance and inventory operations",
"responsibility": "Review budget assumptions, known shrink, inventory ageing and reconciliation."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "Next weekly review using refreshed, reconciled data.",
"checks": [
"Contribution and supplied-budget variances.",
"Stockout hours divided by open hours, including store/SKU exceptions.",
"Unexplained inventory exposure, known shrink and inventory age.",
"Continued customer need coverage."
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"ESCALATE if source data become invalid, unreconciled or older than seven days, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100.",
"INVESTIGATE if revenue growth accompanies contribution decline, availability deteriorates, or a local outlier emerges.",
"Consider ACT only after every contractual pilot eligibility condition is satisfied and human approval is obtained."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"descriptive_financial_comparison": "High within the supplied synthetic records.",
"decision": "High for HOLD under the supplied contract.",
"causal_attribution": "Not established.",
"boundary": "No external information used and no business action executed."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C10",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "2fa3338217af76458ba3b4f3e9b0635435bed702f4769b6d7b626104b3736a92",
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}当前证据未触发干预门槛；保持经营策略并持续监测。
维持当前商品与价格，继续收集下一周期经营数据。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥368,390.00；较基期变化 ¥8,696.00；贡献额变化 ¥3,794.60。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "当前证据未触发干预门槛；保持经营策略并持续监测。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 359694.0,
"current_revenue": 368390.0,
"revenue_delta": 8696.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.024176,
"volume_effect": 9484.0,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": -788.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 158532.6,
"current_gross_margin": 162442.4,
"gross_margin_delta": 3909.8,
"baseline_contribution": 158069.2,
"current_contribution": 161863.8,
"contribution_delta": 3794.6,
"quantity_effect": 3909.8,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": null,
"target_current_stockout_rate": null,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52987.0,
"current_revenue": 53278.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.005492,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.02255,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55899.0,
"current_revenue": 57125.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.021932,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.01433,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58746.0,
"current_revenue": 60107.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.023168,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.013712,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61208.0,
"current_revenue": 62850.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.026827,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.03196,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 63778.0,
"current_revenue": 65935.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.03382,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.028463,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67076.0,
"current_revenue": 69095.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.0301,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.030324,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1422.0,
"K02": 1556.0,
"K03": 1698.0,
"K04": 1848.0,
"K05": 1993.0,
"K06": 2117.0,
"K07": 2279.0,
"K08": 2424.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 368390.0,
"revenue_budget": 379441.7,
"revenue_variance": -11051.7,
"gross_margin_actual": 162442.4,
"gross_margin_budget": 167315.79,
"gross_margin_variance": -4873.39
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"No promotion in scope."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 8696.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 3909.8,
"contribution_delta": 3794.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "HOLD",
"ACTION": {
"type": "monitor",
"description": "维持当前商品与价格，继续收集下一周期经营数据。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": "case scope",
"duration_days": 7
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Category Manager"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-26",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 7,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"出现贡献额下降、可售率下降、未解释库存差异或预算持续偏离时重新诊断。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C10",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "2fa3338217af76458ba3b4f3e9b0635435bed702f4769b6d7b626104b3736a92",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "bounded_pilot_eligibility",
"triggered": false,
"checks": {
"requested": false,
"authority": false,
"identified": false,
"incremental_profit_positive": false,
"guardrails": false,
"worst_pilot_pool_stockout_rate": 1.0
}
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "HOLD",
"final_decision": "HOLD"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The revenue increase is consistent with higher recorded volume partly offset by SKU mix, with no price effect. Sustained demand growth and temporary period variation remain competing, unverified explanations.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Revenue and gross margin improved against baseline but missed supplied budgets. Weaker-than-planned performance and unsuitable budget assumptions are competing explanations; budget ownership and allocation logic are unavailable.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY excluding VAT",
"revenue_delta": 8696.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 3909.8,
"contribution_delta": 3794.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The revenue increase is consistent with higher recorded volume partly offset by SKU mix, with no price effect. Sustained demand growth and temporary period variation remain competing, unverified explanations.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "Revenue and gross margin improved against baseline but missed supplied budgets. Weaker-than-planned performance and unsuitable budget assumptions are competing explanations; budget ownership and allocation logic are unavailable.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "HOLD",
"decision_rationale": {
"statement": "Supplied checks pass, reported freshness is within threshold, contribution increased, inventory exposure and stockouts are zero, and no store outliers were detected. Promotions are not applicable. Budget shortfalls warrant monitoring and clarification. ACT is ineligible because no bounded pilot was requested or approved and qualifying experimental evidence is absent. These financial measures do not establish net profit or future uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare",
"promo_incrementality",
"budget"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "monitor",
"description": "Propose one review at the next four-week reporting close, comparing all-category contribution, supplied budget variances, availability and inventory exposure. Ask the human budget owner to clarify the current budget assumptions during that review. Preserve K07 need coverage; any pricing, delisting, supplier commitment or execution decision remains with the human.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"margin_decomposition",
"inventory_anomaly",
"assortment"
],
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether the volume increase persists across additional comparable periods and what explains it.",
"Whether supplied budgets reflect approved, comparable planning assumptions.",
"Whether source processes are correct beyond the supplied row-level validation.",
"Customer substitution and need-coverage effects of any future assortment change.",
"Competitor information lacks verified, comparable evidence and cannot support a commercial change."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}Unreconciled book-to-actual inventory exposure exceeds the contract's escalation threshold; its cause is unknown.
Refer the discrepancy to inventory control and finance for a recount and reconciliation of receipts, sales, transfers, shrink and channel allocation. Establish the cause before commercial interpretation. Do not attribute it to theft or personnel without independent evidence. Any inventory adjustment, delisting, price change, supplier commitment or pilot remains a human decision.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Revenue and contribution increased, but both revenue and gross margin missed supplied budgets. Unexplained inventory exposure requires escalation before commercial interpretation.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "Unreconciled book-to-actual inventory exposure exceeds the contract's escalation threshold; its cause is unknown.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks.",
"claim": "Revenue increased from CNY 360372 to 367953; gross margin from 158881.70 to 162245.50; contribution from 158418.30 to 161666.90. Known shrink increased from 463.40 to 578.60; promotion costs were zero.",
"limitations": "Descriptive accounting comparison only; contribution excludes unexplained inventory discrepancy and is not net profit."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV inventory records",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; current four weeks.",
"claim": "Unexplained inventory exposure totals CNY 900, exceeding the CNY 100 threshold. Discrepant records occur at S03, K05, both channels, in the week of 2026-09-07.",
"limitations": "The records establish a discrepancy, not its cause or a confirmed loss."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "Entire supplied comparison dataset.",
"claim": "Recorded stockout hours and promotion costs are zero in both periods. Declared data freshness is two days, within the seven-day limit.",
"limitations": "Recorded availability does not independently prove customer need coverage. The observational design does not establish causal effects."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Whether the inventory discrepancy reflects counting, timing, receipt, transfer, recording errors, or physical loss.",
"Whether channel inventory records represent distinct physical stock pools, requiring confirmation during reconciliation.",
"The causes of sales changes and budget shortfalls; competitor information is unverified and noncomparable.",
"Future incremental contribution from any commercial intervention."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": 7581,
"gross_margin_delta": 3363.8,
"contribution_delta": 3248.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11038.59,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4867.46,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 900
},
"DECISION": "ESCALATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "proposed_inventory_reconciliation",
"description": "Refer the discrepancy to inventory control and finance for a recount and reconciliation of receipts, sales, transfers, shrink and channel allocation. Establish the cause before commercial interpretation. Do not attribute it to theft or personnel without independent evidence. Any inventory adjustment, delisting, price change, supplier commitment or pilot remains a human decision.",
"scope": {
"case_id": "C06",
"records_to_reconcile": {
"store_id": "S03",
"sku_id": "K05",
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"week": "2026-09-07"
},
"financial_reassessment": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; supplied four-week comparison periods."
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
{
"role": "Inventory control and store operations",
"responsibility": "Proposed recount and movement reconciliation."
},
{
"role": "Finance",
"responsibility": "Validate valuation and authorize any accounting treatment."
},
{
"role": "Human category manager",
"responsibility": "Retain commercial decision rights and protect K07 need coverage."
}
],
"REVIEW": {
"trigger": "After documented reconciliation and before any commercial change.",
"required_evidence": [
"Verified physical counts and channel stock allocation.",
"Reconciled inventory movements and documented explanation of differences.",
"Updated all-category financial comparison and availability checks."
],
"pilot_eligibility": "Not met: the request is review, pilot authority is absent, the experiment is observational, and inventory exposure is nonzero."
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"Reassess escalation after source records reconcile and unexplained exposure falls below CNY 100; otherwise retain escalation.",
"Resolving the discrepancy does not authorize execution. Any ACT recommendation must separately satisfy every contractual eligibility condition and receive human approval."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"decision": "High: supplied inventory exposure exceeds the explicit threshold.",
"financial_comparison": "Based solely on supplied row values and contractual definitions; budgets use supplied current-period amounts.",
"causal_attribution": "Undetermined."
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C06",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "e3a15eb0033507104c193f150894d78ae906e34a023d3dccf166e2599b64fc25",
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}账面库存与实际盘点存在未解释差异，涉及财务与损耗责任。
由门店、损耗负责人和财务完成复盘盘点、收货单与系统时间核对，保留原始记录。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥367,953.00；较基期变化 ¥7,581.00；贡献额变化 ¥3,248.60。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "账面库存与实际盘点存在未解释差异，涉及财务与损耗责任。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 360372.0,
"current_revenue": 367953.0,
"revenue_delta": 7581.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.021037,
"volume_effect": 7474.2,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": 106.8,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 158881.7,
"current_gross_margin": 162245.5,
"gross_margin_delta": 3363.8,
"baseline_contribution": 158418.3,
"current_contribution": 161666.9,
"contribution_delta": 3248.6,
"quantity_effect": 3363.8,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": -0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 900.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": -0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": null,
"target_current_stockout_rate": null,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 50,
"unknown_loss_value": 900.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 51684.0,
"current_revenue": 53279.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.030861,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.024881,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55005.0,
"current_revenue": 57070.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.037542,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.021541,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 59085.0,
"current_revenue": 59807.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.01222,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.034201,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 62623.0,
"current_revenue": 62912.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.004615,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.022013,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 65034.0,
"current_revenue": 66297.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.019421,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.01461,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 66941.0,
"current_revenue": 68588.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.024604,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.012018,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1422.0,
"K02": 1551.0,
"K03": 1697.0,
"K04": 1820.0,
"K05": 1998.0,
"K06": 2130.0,
"K07": 2270.0,
"K08": 2418.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 367953.0,
"revenue_budget": 378991.59,
"revenue_variance": -11038.59,
"gross_margin_actual": 162245.5,
"gross_margin_budget": 167112.96,
"gross_margin_variance": -4867.46
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"账实差异原因未知；可能涉及收货、盘点、系统时差或未记录损耗，不能推断偷窃或人员责任。",
"No promotion in scope."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": 7581.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 3363.8,
"contribution_delta": 3248.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11038.59,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4867.46,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 900.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "ESCALATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "inventory_reconciliation",
"description": "由门店、损耗负责人和财务完成复盘盘点、收货单与系统时间核对，保留原始记录。",
"scope": {
"stores": "case scope",
"skus": "case scope",
"duration_days": 1
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Store Ops",
"Loss Prevention",
"Finance"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-20",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 1,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"差异完成逐笔核对并明确记账口径后，重新评估库存和损耗建议。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C06",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "e3a15eb0033507104c193f150894d78ae906e34a023d3dccf166e2599b64fc25",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "ESCALATE",
"final_decision": "ESCALATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The inventory discrepancy could reflect counting error, recording or timing differences, or an actual unexplained shortage. These are competing, unverified explanations; the evidence does not establish theft or personnel responsibility.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "The accounting bridges associate revenue growth mainly with higher unit volume and gross-margin growth with quantity changes. They do not establish stronger underlying demand or predict future uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Positive period-over-period results coexist with revenue and gross margin below supplied budgets. Operational underperformance and budget-setting differences remain possible explanations; budget ownership and allocation logic are unavailable.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": 7581.0,
"gross_margin_delta": 3363.8,
"contribution_delta": 3248.6,
"revenue_vs_budget": -11038.59,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -4867.46,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 900.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "The inventory discrepancy could reflect counting error, recording or timing differences, or an actual unexplained shortage. These are competing, unverified explanations; the evidence does not establish theft or personnel responsibility.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality"
]
},
{
"statement": "The accounting bridges associate revenue growth mainly with higher unit volume and gross-margin growth with quantity changes. They do not establish stronger underlying demand or predict future uplift.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
]
},
{
"statement": "Positive period-over-period results coexist with revenue and gross margin below supplied budgets. Operational underperformance and budget-setting differences remain possible explanations; budget ownership and allocation logic are unavailable.",
"evidence_ids": [
"budget",
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "ESCALATE",
"decision_reason": "Unexplained inventory exposure of CNY 900.0 exceeds the CNY 100.0 escalation threshold. Passing row-level quality checks does not resolve this discrepancy. Reported contribution excludes this exposure and is not net profit.",
"decision_evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"proposed_action": {
"type": "human_review",
"description": "Refer the 50-unit, CNY 900.0 discrepancy to the human inventory owner for reconciliation before commercial interpretation. Bound the review to affected current-period store/SKU/channel pools: verify independent counts, inventory movements and posting cutoffs, and document any supported corrections and remaining exposure. Preserve channel-specific pool boundaries. Return the reconciliation for human review before reconsidering the recommendation.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"quality"
],
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Which store/SKU/channel pools contain the discrepancy and whether count or posting corrections explain it.",
"Whether reconciliation changes booked contribution or leaves unexplained exposure.",
"The business basis and allocation logic of the supplied budgets.",
"Underlying causes of the observed quantity changes; descriptive bridges do not establish causality."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}S06 accounts for more than the aggregate revenue decline, while S01–S05 combined grew. S06's lower sales coincide with recorded stockouts across all SKUs and both channels; causality is unestablished.
Have responsible humans investigate S06's availability records against operating logs, shelf replenishment, channel listings, and inventory timing. Preserve K07 need coverage. Review findings before proposing assortment, pricing, supplier, or expansion decisions. No pilot is eligible or authorized.
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "Category revenue and contribution declined, with an availability outlier concentrated in S06. Investigate before commercial changes.",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "S06 accounts for more than the aggregate revenue decline, while S01–S05 combined grew. S06's lower sales coincide with recorded stockouts across all SKUs and both channels; causality is unestablished.",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All eight SKUs, six stores, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue decreased from CNY 359332 to 323065; gross margin from 158400.50 to 142455.50; contribution from 157937.10 to 141876.90. Known shrink increased from 463.40 to 578.60; promotion costs were zero.",
"limitations": "Historical accounting comparison, not net profit, causal impact, or estimated future uplift."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "S06, all SKUs, both channels; current four weeks versus baseline four weeks",
"claim": "Revenue decreased by CNY 42760, compared with combined growth of CNY 6493 at S01–S05. Every current S06 row records 46 stockout hours out of 112 open hours, a 41.07% rate, versus zero in baseline.",
"limitations": "Positive closing inventory coexists with recorded stockouts. Closing balances do not establish shelf or channel availability throughout the week."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV",
"scope": "All SKUs, all stores, both channels; four weeks per period",
"claim": "Stockout rate, calculated as summed stockout hours divided by summed open hours at SKU-store-channel grain, increased from 0% to 6.85%, exceeding the 3-percentage-point increase threshold.",
"limitations": "This measures SKU-store-channel exposure, not distinct store closure hours or lost demand."
},
{
"source": "Supplied POS CSV and business context",
"scope": "Entire supplied dataset; current-period budgets and inventory",
"claim": "Supplied current revenue budget totals CNY 378005.88 and gross-margin budget totals 166687.74. Recorded book and actual closing inventories match. Reported data freshness is two days, within the seven-day limit.",
"limitations": "Budget provenance and physical inventory accuracy are not independently verified."
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"Why S06 records identical stockout durations across all SKUs and channels despite positive closing inventory.",
"Whether shelf replenishment, channel availability settings, operating interruptions, measurement issues, or other factors explain the observed pattern.",
"Unconstrained demand, lost sales, substitution, and any recoverable contribution.",
"Competitor relevance: the supplied signal is unverified and noncomparable. The observational design does not support causal attribution."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"revenue_delta": -36267,
"gross_margin_delta": -15945,
"contribution_delta": -16060.2,
"revenue_vs_budget": -54940.88,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -24232.24,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "proposed_operational_and_data_review",
"description": "Have responsible humans investigate S06's availability records against operating logs, shelf replenishment, channel listings, and inventory timing. Preserve K07 need coverage. Review findings before proposing assortment, pricing, supplier, or expansion decisions. No pilot is eligible or authorized.",
"scope": {
"stores": [
"S06"
],
"skus": "K01–K08",
"channels": [
"online",
"offline"
],
"current_weeks": [
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-07"
],
"comparison": "Supplied baseline weeks and S01–S05, descriptively only"
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"S06 operations owner: availability investigation",
"POS/inventory data owner: record reconciliation",
"Category manager: commercial decisions and need-coverage protection",
"Finance owner: financial and budget validation"
],
"REVIEW": {
"timing": "Review reconciled findings before commercial changes; reassess after the next complete week of validated data.",
"measures": [
"S06 availability by SKU and channel",
"All-category revenue, gross margin, and contribution",
"K07 availability and need coverage",
"Inventory discrepancies and source-data validity"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"ESCALATE if investigation identifies invalid or unreconciled source data, or unexplained inventory exposure reaches CNY 100.",
"Consider HOLD and monitoring once validated evidence resolves the local outlier and availability deterioration.",
"Any bounded pilot requires every contractual eligibility condition and explicit human approval; this review provides no execution authority."
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"observed_financial_and_store_pattern": "high",
"causal_explanation": "low",
"decision": "high: availability deterioration and the local outlier warrant investigation"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C04",
"mode": "frontier_direct",
"data_sha256": "e5860ae3df83de483bac3c2187f37f4618391b26c1afeadf8204d90af2858977",
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}变化集中在少数门店，应先与同簇门店比较再决定区域策略。
对异常门店核查营业时段、人员执行、客流和商品供应，暂缓全区域策略调整。
{
"BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥323,065.00；较基期变化 ¥-36,267.00；贡献额变化 ¥-16,060.20。",
"PRIMARY DRIVER": "变化集中在少数门店，应先与同簇门店比较再决定区域策略。",
"EVIDENCE": [
{
"id": "quality",
"tool": "quality",
"scope": "all supplied rows",
"method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks",
"metrics": {
"valid": true,
"issues": []
},
"limitations": [
"A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process."
]
},
{
"id": "sales_decomposition",
"tool": "sales",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks",
"method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_revenue": 359332.0,
"current_revenue": 323065.0,
"revenue_delta": -36267.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.100929,
"volume_effect": -35873.13,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"mix_effect": -393.87,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.",
"New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor."
]
},
{
"id": "margin_decomposition",
"tool": "margin",
"scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period",
"method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge",
"metrics": {
"baseline_gross_margin": 158400.5,
"current_gross_margin": 142455.5,
"gross_margin_delta": -15945.0,
"baseline_contribution": 157937.1,
"current_contribution": 141876.9,
"contribution_delta": -16060.2,
"quantity_effect": -15945.0,
"price_effect": 0.0,
"unit_cost_effect": 0.0,
"known_shrink_delta": 115.2,
"promo_cost_delta": 0.0,
"known_shrink_cost": 578.6,
"unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0,
"promo_cost": 0.0,
"reconciliation_residual": 0.0
},
"limitations": [
"Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.",
"Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled."
]
},
{
"id": "inventory_anomaly",
"tool": "inventory",
"scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline",
"method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours",
"metrics": {
"baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0,
"current_stockout_rate": 0.068452,
"target_baseline_stockout_rate": null,
"target_current_stockout_rate": null,
"by_sku_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"K01": 0.0,
"K02": 0.0,
"K03": 0.0,
"K04": 0.0,
"K05": 0.0,
"K06": 0.0,
"K07": 0.0,
"K08": 0.0
},
"current": {
"K01": 0.068452,
"K02": 0.068452,
"K03": 0.068452,
"K04": 0.068452,
"K05": 0.068452,
"K06": 0.068452,
"K07": 0.068452,
"K08": 0.068452
}
},
"by_store_stockout_rate": {
"baseline": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.0
},
"current": {
"S01": 0.0,
"S02": 0.0,
"S03": 0.0,
"S04": 0.0,
"S05": 0.0,
"S06": 0.410714
}
},
"unknown_loss_units": 0,
"unknown_loss_value": 0.0,
"known_loss_value": 578.6,
"inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool."
},
"limitations": [
"A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.",
"Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position."
]
},
{
"id": "promo_incrementality",
"tool": "promo",
"scope": "current-period promotions",
"method": "no promoted observations",
"metrics": {
"status": "not_applicable",
"incremental_units": null,
"incremental_contribution": null
},
"limitations": [
"No promotion in scope."
]
},
{
"id": "store_cluster_compare",
"tool": "stores",
"scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue",
"method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)",
"metrics": {
"outlier_store_ids": [
"S06"
],
"by_store": [
{
"store_id": "S01",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 52094.0,
"current_revenue": 53111.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.019522,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.03051,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S02",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 55258.0,
"current_revenue": 56734.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.026711,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.026916,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S03",
"cluster": "urban",
"baseline_revenue": 58380.0,
"current_revenue": 60383.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.03431,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.023116,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
},
{
"store_id": "S04",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 61548.0,
"current_revenue": 62799.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.020326,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.311643,
"outlier_threshold": 0.969522
},
{
"store_id": "S05",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 64694.0,
"current_revenue": 65440.0,
"revenue_change_pct": 0.011531,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": -0.307246,
"outlier_threshold": 0.982715
},
{
"store_id": "S06",
"cluster": "community",
"baseline_revenue": 67358.0,
"current_revenue": 24598.0,
"revenue_change_pct": -0.634817,
"peer_n": 2,
"peer_median_change_pct": 0.015928,
"outlier_threshold": 0.15
}
]
},
"limitations": [
"Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause."
]
},
{
"id": "assortment",
"tool": "assortment",
"scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles",
"method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection",
"metrics": {
"protected_skus": [
"K07"
],
"low_sales_skus": [
"K01",
"K02"
],
"current_units_by_sku": {
"K01": 1228.0,
"K02": 1361.0,
"K03": 1502.0,
"K04": 1610.0,
"K05": 1750.0,
"K06": 1880.0,
"K07": 1985.0,
"K08": 2146.0
}
},
"limitations": [
"Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact."
]
},
{
"id": "budget",
"tool": "budget",
"scope": "current-period row budgets",
"method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity",
"metrics": {
"revenue_actual": 323065.0,
"revenue_budget": 378005.88,
"revenue_variance": -54940.88,
"gross_margin_actual": 142455.5,
"gross_margin_budget": 166687.74,
"gross_margin_variance": -24232.24
},
"limitations": [
"Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file."
]
}
],
"UNKNOWN": [
"合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。",
"缺货与销售变化相关；潜在需求、供应中断与门店补货原因尚不能分离。",
"异常门店的变化不能外推为全上海需求趋势；同簇门店也不是随机对照。",
"No promotion in scope."
],
"P&L IMPACT": {
"currency": "CNY",
"basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit",
"revenue_delta": -36267.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -15945.0,
"contribution_delta": -16060.2,
"revenue_vs_budget": -54940.88,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -24232.24,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"forecast_uplift": null,
"forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee"
},
"DECISION": "INVESTIGATE",
"ACTION": {
"type": "local_store_diagnostic",
"description": "对异常门店核查营业时段、人员执行、客流和商品供应，暂缓全区域策略调整。",
"scope": {
"stores": [
"S06"
],
"skus": "case scope",
"duration_days": 2
},
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"OWNER": [
"Store Ops",
"Category Manager"
],
"REVIEW": {
"due": "2026-09-21",
"relative_to": "synthetic data as_of",
"within_days": 2,
"metrics": [
"contribution",
"revenue_vs_budget",
"stockout_rate",
"unknown_inventory_loss"
]
},
"REVERSAL CONDITION": [
"同簇多数门店在可比营业条件下出现持续同向变化，才升级为区域判断。"
],
"CONFIDENCE": {
"level": "MEDIUM",
"basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。"
},
"_meta": {
"case_id": "C04",
"version": "0.1.0",
"synthetic": true,
"mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal",
"data_sha256": "e5860ae3df83de483bac3c2187f37f4618391b26c1afeadf8204d90af2858977",
"gate_trace": [
{
"rule": "data_invalid",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "data_stale",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "unexplained_loss",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "goodhart_conflict",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "availability_constraint",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "local_outlier",
"triggered": true
},
{
"rule": "protected_assortment",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_delist",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "competitor_unverified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "reserved_price",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "promo_unidentified",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_untrusted",
"triggered": false
},
{
"rule": "model_cannot_override_policy",
"triggered": true,
"requested_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"final_decision": "INVESTIGATE"
}
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Availability disruption at S06 may explain part of the decline: its stockout rate is 0.410714 and its revenue change is -0.634817. Their association does not establish causality or quantify recoverable sales.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "Local demand weakness, changed operating hours, or recording problems remain competing explanations for S06's outlier result. Row-level checks passed, but they do not validate the underlying business process; the peer comparison has only two peers.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"store_cluster_compare",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
},
{
"statement": "The accounting bridges locate the decline primarily in unit volume, with zero price and unit-cost effects and increased booked shrink. This describes financial movements without establishing why volume fell or implying net profit.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
],
"status": "unverified_model_hypothesis"
}
],
"model_issues": [],
"policy": {
"unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0,
"stockout_increase": 0.03,
"max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05,
"max_freshness_days": 7,
"max_pilot_stores": 2,
"max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0
},
"execution_enabled": false,
"raw_model_proposal": {
"scope": "all_skus_all_stores_both_channels; current_four_weeks_vs_baseline_four_weeks",
"currency": "CNY",
"revenue_delta": -36267.0,
"gross_margin_delta": -15945.0,
"contribution_delta": -16060.2,
"revenue_vs_budget": -54940.88,
"gross_margin_vs_budget": -24232.24,
"unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0,
"financial_evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition",
"budget",
"inventory_anomaly"
],
"hypotheses": [
{
"statement": "Availability disruption at S06 may explain part of the decline: its stockout rate is 0.410714 and its revenue change is -0.634817. Their association does not establish causality or quantify recoverable sales.",
"evidence_ids": [
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare"
]
},
{
"statement": "Local demand weakness, changed operating hours, or recording problems remain competing explanations for S06's outlier result. Row-level checks passed, but they do not validate the underlying business process; the peer comparison has only two peers.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"store_cluster_compare",
"inventory_anomaly"
]
},
{
"statement": "The accounting bridges locate the decline primarily in unit volume, with zero price and unit-cost effects and increased booked shrink. This describes financial movements without establishing why volume fell or implying net profit.",
"evidence_ids": [
"sales_decomposition",
"margin_decomposition"
]
}
],
"recommended_decision": "INVESTIGATE",
"decision_basis": {
"statement": "Availability loss and the S06 outlier warrant investigation. Data checks pass and unexplained inventory exposure is zero, so supplied evidence does not trigger escalation. Pilot eligibility is not met.",
"evidence_ids": [
"quality",
"inventory_anomaly",
"store_cluster_compare",
"promo_incrementality"
]
},
"proposed_action": {
"type": "diagnose",
"description": "Propose a review limited to S06 across the supplied baseline and current periods: reconcile operating hours, stockout timestamps, receipts, replenishment and sales records separately by channel inventory pool; compare timing with S04 and S05. Return findings to the human owner before any commercial intervention. Escalate if this review identifies invalid or unreconciled source data.",
"requires_human_approval": true,
"execution_status": "not_executed"
},
"unknowns": [
"Whether stockouts preceded sales losses, and whether operating-hour denominators and stockout records reflect actual conditions.",
"Whether S06 experienced changes in customer traffic, opening hours, replenishment or sales recording.",
"How much of the decline, if any, an availability intervention could recover; the observational evidence cannot identify causal uplift.",
"Competitor information is unverified and noncomparable, so it cannot support a competitive explanation."
]
},
"experiment_segment": "resumed"
}
}