{ "case_id": "F01", "synthetic": true, "page_mode": "recorded_output_replay", "new_model_calls_on_page": 0, "real_business_execution": false, "scope": "S01 × K06; 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-21; one synthetic business story", "snapshots": [ { "title": "先确认需求，再谈减量", "change": "需求区间较宽；折价对需求的影响尚未给定。", "question": "补充可比日需求、未满足订单和订货复核记录；折价反应仍待补证。", "decision": "INVESTIGATE", "driver": "减少订货的收益随需求情境变化，尚不能形成稳健的候选方案。", "action": "门店补充批次实盘与缺货记录；品类负责人复核可比日的需求范围及折价响应，再比较减量与折价方案。", "rows": [ { "scenario": "低需求", "maintain": -220.0, "reduce": 140.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 }, { "scenario": "中需求", "maintain": 180.0, "reduce": 440.0, "delta": 260.0, "unmet": 10.0 }, { "scenario": "高需求", "maintain": 980.0, "reduce": 740.0, "delta": -240.0, "unmet": 60.0 } ], "card": { "ACTION": { "description": "门店补充批次实盘与缺货记录；品类负责人复核可比日的需求范围及折价响应，再比较减量与折价方案。", "execution_status": "not_executed", "requires_human_approval": true, "scope": { "duration_days": 1, "skus": [ "K06" ], "stores": [ "S01" ] }, "type": "fresh_evidence_review" }, "BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥368,390.00；较基期变化 ¥8,696.00；贡献额变化 ¥3,794.60。", "CONFIDENCE": { "basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。", "level": "MEDIUM" }, "DECISION": "INVESTIGATE", "EVIDENCE": [ { "id": "quality", "limitations": [ "A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process." ], "method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks", "metrics": { "issues": [], "valid": true }, "scope": "all supplied rows", "tool": "quality" }, { "id": "sales_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.", "New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor." ], "method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_revenue": 359694.0, "current_revenue": 368390.0, "mix_effect": -788.0, "price_effect": 0.0, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "revenue_change_pct": 0.024176, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "volume_effect": 9484.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks", "tool": "sales" }, { "id": "margin_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.", "Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled." ], "method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_contribution": 158069.2, "baseline_gross_margin": 158532.6, "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "current_contribution": 161863.8, "current_gross_margin": 162442.4, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "known_shrink_cost": 578.6, "known_shrink_delta": 115.2, "price_effect": 0.0, "promo_cost": 0.0, "promo_cost_delta": 0.0, "quantity_effect": 3909.8, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "unit_cost_effect": -0.0, "unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period", "tool": "margin" }, { "id": "inventory_anomaly", "limitations": [ "A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.", "Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position." ], "method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours", "metrics": { "baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "by_sku_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 }, "current": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 } }, "by_store_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 }, "current": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 } }, "current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool.", "known_loss_value": 578.6, "target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "unknown_loss_units": 0, "unknown_loss_value": 0.0 }, "scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline", "tool": "inventory" }, { "id": "promo_incrementality", "limitations": [ "No promotion in scope." ], "method": "no promoted observations", "metrics": { "incremental_contribution": null, "incremental_units": null, "status": "not_applicable" }, "scope": "current-period promotions", "tool": "promo" }, { "id": "store_cluster_compare", "limitations": [ "Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause." ], "method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)", "metrics": { "by_store": [ { "baseline_revenue": 52987.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 53278.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.02255, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.005492, "store_id": "S01" }, { "baseline_revenue": 55899.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 57125.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.01433, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.021932, "store_id": "S02" }, { "baseline_revenue": 58746.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 60107.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.013712, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.023168, "store_id": "S03" }, { "baseline_revenue": 61208.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 62850.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.03196, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.026827, "store_id": "S04" }, { "baseline_revenue": 63778.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 65935.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.028463, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.03382, "store_id": "S05" }, { "baseline_revenue": 67076.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 69095.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.030324, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.0301, "store_id": "S06" } ], "outlier_store_ids": [] }, "scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue", "tool": "stores" }, { "id": "assortment", "limitations": [ "Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact." ], "method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection", "metrics": { "current_units_by_sku": { "K01": 1422.0, "K02": 1556.0, "K03": 1698.0, "K04": 1848.0, "K05": 1993.0, "K06": 2117.0, "K07": 2279.0, "K08": 2424.0 }, "low_sales_skus": [ "K01", "K02" ], "protected_skus": [ "K07" ] }, "scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles", "tool": "assortment" }, { "id": "budget", "limitations": [ "Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file." ], "method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity", "metrics": { "gross_margin_actual": 162442.4, "gross_margin_budget": 167315.79, "gross_margin_variance": -4873.39, "revenue_actual": 368390.0, "revenue_budget": 379441.7, "revenue_variance": -11051.7 }, "scope": "current-period row budgets", "tool": "budget" }, { "id": "pilot_weekly_review", "limitations": [ "Descriptive weekly operating signal only; it does not establish causality or statistical significance.", "It is not a forecast or a guarantee of future pilot performance.", "Threshold interpretation and any decision remain outside this quantitative tool." ], "method": "no eligible current treatment-and-promotion pool", "metrics": { "by_store_period": [], "current_weeks": [], "latest_contribution": null, "latest_pool_rates": [], "latest_week": null, "latest_worst_pool_stockout_rate": null, "pool_recent": [], "prior_current_mean_contribution": null, "sku_ids": [], "status": "not_applicable", "store_ids": [], "weekly": [] }, "scope": "actual current treatment + promotion store/SKU/channel pools for context target SKUs; all rows retained within selected pools", "tool": "pilot_weekly" }, { "id": "source_provenance_audit", "limitations": [ "Synthetic declarations only: source matching does not verify external authenticity, signatures, hashes, or reviewer identity." ], "method": "audit_sources", "metrics": { "claims": [ { "claim_id": "count", "claim_type": "physical_count", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "physical_count", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "count-sheet" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": [ { "expires_on": "2026-09-19", "lot_id": "near-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 90 }, { "expires_on": "2026-09-21", "lot_id": "later-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 60 } ], "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "demand", "claim_type": "demand_basis", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "demand_basis", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "demand-note" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": { "high": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 80, 90, 90 ] }, "low": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 30, 55, 55 ] }, "middle": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 50, 65, 65 ] } }, "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "order", "claim_type": "order_authority", "evidence_references": [], "issues": [ { "claim_id": "order", "code": "missing_source", "message": "referenced source_id has no record", "source_id": "order-review" } ], "required_for_analysis": false, "resolved_fact": null, "status": "unsupported" } ], "external_authenticity": "not_verified", "issues": [], "status": "observed" }, "scope": { "sku_id": "K06", "store_id": "S01" }, "tool": "sources" }, { "id": "fresh_options", "limitations": [ "Conditional scenarios, not a demand forecast or causal uplift.", "No probabilities; no rent, labour, substitution, or cold-chain model.", "Source matching does not establish external authenticity." ], "method": "FEFO lot flow under explicit, unweighted demand scenarios; Decimal cost reconciliation", "metrics": { "as_of": "2026-09-19", "assumptions": [ "Scenario daily potential demand is supplied synthetic input, not a sales forecast.", "No scenario probabilities or expected value are calculated.", "Sales use FEFO; each day receives first, sells in-date lots, then writes off lots expiring that day." ], "comparisons": { "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "limitations": [ "No commonly calculated scenario to compare with maintain." ], "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "probabilities_used": false, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "max_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": 360.0, "min_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": -240.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "horizon_days": 3, "results": { "maintain": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 980.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "potential_demand": 80.0, "revenue": 800.0, "sold_cogs": 480.0, "sold_units": 80.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 90.0, "closing_value": 540.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 90.0, "revenue": 900.0, "sold_cogs": 540.0, "sold_units": 90.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 90.0, "revenue": 900.0, "sold_cogs": 540.0, "sold_units": 90.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 2600.0, "sold_cogs": 1560.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": -220.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 125.0, "closing_value": 750.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 420.0, "expired_units": 70.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 780.0, "expired_units": 130.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1400.0, "sold_cogs": 840.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 180.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 115.0, "closing_value": 690.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 65.0, "revenue": 650.0, "sold_cogs": 390.0, "sold_units": 65.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 300.0, "expired_units": 50.0, "potential_demand": 65.0, "revenue": 650.0, "sold_cogs": 390.0, "sold_units": 65.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 540.0, "expired_units": 90.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1800.0, "sold_cogs": 1080.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 } }, "markdown": { "high": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "low": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "middle": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" } }, "reduce_order": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 740.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "potential_demand": 80.0, "revenue": 800.0, "sold_cogs": 480.0, "sold_units": 80.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 30.0, "closing_value": 180.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 90.0, "revenue": 900.0, "sold_cogs": 540.0, "sold_units": 90.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 90.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 60.0 } ], "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 2000.0, "sold_cogs": 1200.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 60.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 140.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 65.0, "closing_value": 390.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 420.0, "expired_units": 70.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1400.0, "sold_cogs": 840.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 440.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 55.0, "closing_value": 330.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 65.0, "revenue": 650.0, "sold_cogs": 390.0, "sold_units": 65.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 65.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 10.0 } ], "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1700.0, "sold_cogs": 1020.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 10.0 } } }, "sku_id": "K06", "status": "ok", "store_id": "S01", "summaries": { "maintain": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "maintain", "max_expired_units": 130.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "kind": "markdown", "max_expired_units": null, "max_unmet_fraction": null, "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "reduce_order", "max_expired_units": 70.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.23076923076923078, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "synthetic": true }, "scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "tool": "fresh_options" } ], "OWNER": [ "Category Manager", "Store Ops" ], "P&L IMPACT": { "basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit", "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "currency": "CNY", "forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee", "forecast_uplift": null, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7, "scenario_note": "Conditional daily lot scenarios are in EVIDENCE.fresh_options; never substitute them for historical 4+4-week P&L above.", "scenario_scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "scenario_status": "ok", "unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0 }, "PRIMARY DRIVER": "减少订货的收益随需求情境变化，尚不能形成稳健的候选方案。", "REVERSAL CONDITION": [ "需求范围、批次库存或到货条件改变时，重新计算全部方案；不得把区间上界当承诺收益。" ], "REVIEW": { "due": "2026-09-20", "metrics": [ "contribution", "revenue_vs_budget", "stockout_rate", "unknown_inventory_loss" ], "relative_to": "synthetic data as_of", "within_days": 1 }, "UNKNOWN": [ "合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。", "No promotion in scope.", "需求路径是人为给定的压力情境，未校准概率，也不保证覆盖真实需求。", "来源记录与计划一致，不等于记录、签名或审核人已由真实系统认证。", "方案只覆盖单店单品三天；租金、人力、替代购买、冷链和跨店调拨未计入。", "以下方案缺少需求反应假设，未识别经济性：markdown；不能宣称已找到最优方案。" ], "_meta": { "case_id": "F01", "data_sha256": "925c5f4c98274a23acdfe487173f57dafbd5cae8071e5163df259344329d166f", "execution_enabled": false, "gate_trace": [ { "rule": "data_invalid", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "data_stale", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "unexplained_loss", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "goodhart_conflict", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "availability_constraint", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "recent_pilot_risk", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "local_outlier", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "protected_assortment", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_delist", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "competitor_unverified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_price", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "promo_unidentified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "model_untrusted", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "fresh_options_require_human_commercial_review", "triggered": true }, { "final_decision": "INVESTIGATE", "requested_decision": "INVESTIGATE", "rule": "model_cannot_override_policy", "triggered": true } ], "hypotheses": [ { "evidence_ids": [ "sales_decomposition", "margin_decomposition", "budget", "inventory_anomaly" ], "statement": "Historical all-category P&L, all SKUs/all stores/both channels, current four weeks versus baseline four weeks (CNY): revenue_delta = 8696.0; gross_margin_delta = 3909.8; contribution_delta = 3794.6; revenue_vs_budget = -11051.7; gross_margin_vs_budget = -4873.39; unexplained_inventory_exposure = 0.0. Budget variances use current-period supplied budgets only. Growth alongside budget shortfalls does not establish demand causality or net profit.", "status": "unverified_model_hypothesis" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "quality", "sales_decomposition", "margin_decomposition", "inventory_anomaly", "store_cluster_compare" ], "statement": "No historical data or inventory escalation trigger is apparent: quality checks pass, bridges reconcile, unexplained exposure is zero, aggregate stockouts are zero, and no store outlier is flagged. The declared two-day feed age and latest completed observation window, September 7–13 relative to September 19, are within the seven-day freshness limit. Historical availability does not rule out future fresh-case shortages.", "status": "unverified_model_hypothesis" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "fresh_options" ], "statement": "For S01/K06, September 19–21 only, reducing the order may exchange lower expiry for lost availability. Audited low/middle/high contribution is CNY 140/440/740 under reduce_order versus -220/180/980 under maintain. The supplied improvement range is -240 to +360, so reduction does not dominate maintain. Reduced-order unfilled units are 0/10/60 versus zero under maintain; expired units are 70/40/10 versus 130/90/10. These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts or causal uplift.", "status": "unverified_model_hypothesis" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "fresh_options", "source_provenance_audit" ], "statement": "Markdown cannot yet be ranked because its demand-response multiplier is missing in every scenario. Count and demand records match within the synthetic case, but the order-authority claim is unsupported because the referenced order-review record is absent. This optional authority gap does not invalidate the scenario arithmetic or confer permission to order; external authenticity remains not_verified.", "status": "unverified_model_hypothesis" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "promo_incrementality", "pilot_weekly_review", "source_provenance_audit" ], "statement": "ACT is not supported. There is no identified promotion incrementality and no eligible current promotion pilot to review. The declared observational design, zero spending/store authority and unapproved pilot cannot be replaced by fresh-case scenario results. A human must decide any order or markdown change.", "status": "unverified_model_hypothesis" }, { "decision_relevance": "Resolves unsupported authority without treating a scenario calculation as permission to execute.", "evidence_ids": [ "source_provenance_audit" ], "owner": "Category manager / authorized order owner", "statement": "Provide the missing order-review record, identifying the authorized decision-maker, scope, permitted order change and approval status for S01/K06.", "status": "unverified_model_evidence_request" }, { "decision_relevance": "Reduction is not uniformly better: its high-demand contribution is lower and it leaves 60 units unfilled.", "evidence_ids": [ "fresh_options", "source_provenance_audit" ], "owner": "Store operations and demand planning", "statement": "Provide recent daily demand and documented unfilled-demand observations for S01/K06, together with the human owner's acceptable availability-versus-expiry tradeoff.", "status": "unverified_model_evidence_request" }, { "decision_relevance": "Markdown is not_identified and cannot responsibly be ranked against maintain or reduce_order.", "evidence_ids": [ "fresh_options" ], "owner": "Pricing/category analyst", "statement": "Supply a documented markdown proposal and demand-response basis, then obtain an audited comparison on the same three-day lot-flow scope.", "status": "unverified_model_evidence_request" }, { "decision_relevance": "Checks realized availability, expiry and contribution; reopens review if outcomes fall outside supplied scenarios without claiming causal proof.", "evidence_ids": [ "fresh_options" ], "owner": "Store operations and finance", "statement": "If a trial is separately approved, provide dated receipts, lot-level sales, expiry/writeoffs, documented unfilled units and action fees for September 19–21, plus audited contribution reconciliation.", "status": "unverified_model_evidence_request" } ], "mode": "tool_gate+llm_proposal", "model_issues": [], "policy": { "max_freshness_days": 7, "max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0, "max_pilot_stores": 2, "max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05, "stockout_increase": 0.03, "unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0 }, "synthetic": true, "version": "0.1.0" } } }, { "title": "有条件地进入人工复核", "change": "采纳缩小后的需求区间与合成订货复核记录；没有改变历史 POS 或商业方案。", "question": "由有权负责人复核下一步订货；折价反应仍待补证，系统没有下单。", "decision": "ESCALATE", "driver": "在已声明的需求情境内，减少订货比维持方案贡献更高且未超过缺货护栏；可提交人工商业复核。", "action": "将可选新增订货由 120 份减至 60 份的候选方案交品类与采购负责人核准；已承诺到货不变，核对供应承诺、最新需求和计划费用后再决定，系统不下单。", "rows": [ { "scenario": "低需求", "maintain": -320.0, "reduce": 40.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 }, { "scenario": "中需求", "maintain": -120.0, "reduce": 240.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 }, { "scenario": "高需求", "maintain": 80.0, "reduce": 440.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 } ], "card": { "ACTION": { "description": "将可选新增订货由 120 份减至 60 份的候选方案交品类与采购负责人核准；已承诺到货不变，核对供应承诺、最新需求和计划费用后再决定，系统不下单。", "execution_status": "not_executed", "requires_human_approval": true, "scope": { "duration_days": 1, "skus": [ "K06" ], "stores": [ "S01" ] }, "type": "fresh_commercial_review" }, "BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥368,390.00；较基期变化 ¥8,696.00；贡献额变化 ¥3,794.60。", "CONFIDENCE": { "basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。", "level": "MEDIUM" }, "DECISION": "ESCALATE", "EVIDENCE": [ { "id": "quality", "limitations": [ "A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process." ], "method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks", "metrics": { "issues": [], "valid": true }, "scope": "all supplied rows", "tool": "quality" }, { "id": "sales_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.", "New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor." ], "method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_revenue": 359694.0, "current_revenue": 368390.0, "mix_effect": -788.0, "price_effect": 0.0, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "revenue_change_pct": 0.024176, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "volume_effect": 9484.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks", "tool": "sales" }, { "id": "margin_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.", "Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled." ], "method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_contribution": 158069.2, "baseline_gross_margin": 158532.6, "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "current_contribution": 161863.8, "current_gross_margin": 162442.4, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "known_shrink_cost": 578.6, "known_shrink_delta": 115.2, "price_effect": 0.0, "promo_cost": 0.0, "promo_cost_delta": 0.0, "quantity_effect": 3909.8, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "unit_cost_effect": -0.0, "unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period", "tool": "margin" }, { "id": "inventory_anomaly", "limitations": [ "A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.", "Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position." ], "method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours", "metrics": { "baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "by_sku_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 }, "current": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 } }, "by_store_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 }, "current": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 } }, "current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool.", "known_loss_value": 578.6, "target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "unknown_loss_units": 0, "unknown_loss_value": 0.0 }, "scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline", "tool": "inventory" }, { "id": "promo_incrementality", "limitations": [ "No promotion in scope." ], "method": "no promoted observations", "metrics": { "incremental_contribution": null, "incremental_units": null, "status": "not_applicable" }, "scope": "current-period promotions", "tool": "promo" }, { "id": "store_cluster_compare", "limitations": [ "Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause." ], "method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)", "metrics": { "by_store": [ { "baseline_revenue": 52987.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 53278.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.02255, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.005492, "store_id": "S01" }, { "baseline_revenue": 55899.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 57125.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.01433, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.021932, "store_id": "S02" }, { "baseline_revenue": 58746.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 60107.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.013712, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.023168, "store_id": "S03" }, { "baseline_revenue": 61208.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 62850.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.03196, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.026827, "store_id": "S04" }, { "baseline_revenue": 63778.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 65935.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.028463, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.03382, "store_id": "S05" }, { "baseline_revenue": 67076.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 69095.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.030324, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.0301, "store_id": "S06" } ], "outlier_store_ids": [] }, "scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue", "tool": "stores" }, { "id": "assortment", "limitations": [ "Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact." ], "method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection", "metrics": { "current_units_by_sku": { "K01": 1422.0, "K02": 1556.0, "K03": 1698.0, "K04": 1848.0, "K05": 1993.0, "K06": 2117.0, "K07": 2279.0, "K08": 2424.0 }, "low_sales_skus": [ "K01", "K02" ], "protected_skus": [ "K07" ] }, "scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles", "tool": "assortment" }, { "id": "budget", "limitations": [ "Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file." ], "method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity", "metrics": { "gross_margin_actual": 162442.4, "gross_margin_budget": 167315.79, "gross_margin_variance": -4873.39, "revenue_actual": 368390.0, "revenue_budget": 379441.7, "revenue_variance": -11051.7 }, "scope": "current-period row budgets", "tool": "budget" }, { "id": "pilot_weekly_review", "limitations": [ "Descriptive weekly operating signal only; it does not establish causality or statistical significance.", "It is not a forecast or a guarantee of future pilot performance.", "Threshold interpretation and any decision remain outside this quantitative tool." ], "method": "no eligible current treatment-and-promotion pool", "metrics": { "by_store_period": [], "current_weeks": [], "latest_contribution": null, "latest_pool_rates": [], "latest_week": null, "latest_worst_pool_stockout_rate": null, "pool_recent": [], "prior_current_mean_contribution": null, "sku_ids": [], "status": "not_applicable", "store_ids": [], "weekly": [] }, "scope": "actual current treatment + promotion store/SKU/channel pools for context target SKUs; all rows retained within selected pools", "tool": "pilot_weekly" }, { "id": "source_provenance_audit", "limitations": [ "Synthetic declarations only: source matching does not verify external authenticity, signatures, hashes, or reviewer identity." ], "method": "audit_sources", "metrics": { "claims": [ { "claim_id": "count", "claim_type": "physical_count", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "physical_count", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "count-sheet" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": [ { "expires_on": "2026-09-19", "lot_id": "near-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 90 }, { "expires_on": "2026-09-21", "lot_id": "later-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 60 } ], "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "demand", "claim_type": "demand_basis", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "demand_basis", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "demand-note" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": { "high": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 50, 60, 60 ] }, "low": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 30, 50, 50 ] }, "middle": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 40, 55, 55 ] } }, "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "order", "claim_type": "order_authority", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "order_authority", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "order-review" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": false, "resolved_fact": { "action": "reduce_order", "amount": 60, "limit": 120, "unit": "units" }, "status": "observed" } ], "external_authenticity": "not_verified", "issues": [], "status": "observed" }, "scope": { "sku_id": "K06", "store_id": "S01" }, "tool": "sources" }, { "id": "fresh_options", "limitations": [ "Conditional scenarios, not a demand forecast or causal uplift.", "No probabilities; no rent, labour, substitution, or cold-chain model.", "Source matching does not establish external authenticity." ], "method": "FEFO lot flow under explicit, unweighted demand scenarios; Decimal cost reconciliation", "metrics": { "as_of": "2026-09-19", "assumptions": [ "Scenario daily potential demand is supplied synthetic input, not a sales forecast.", "No scenario probabilities or expected value are calculated.", "Sales use FEFO; each day receives first, sells in-date lots, then writes off lots expiring that day." ], "comparisons": { "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "limitations": [ "No commonly calculated scenario to compare with maintain." ], "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "probabilities_used": false, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "max_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": 360.0, "min_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": 360.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "horizon_days": 3, "results": { "maintain": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 80.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 120.0, "closing_value": 720.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 600.0, "expired_units": 100.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1700.0, "sold_cogs": 1020.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": -320.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 130.0, "closing_value": 780.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 480.0, "expired_units": 80.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 840.0, "expired_units": 140.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1300.0, "sold_cogs": 780.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": -120.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 300.0, "expired_units": 50.0, "potential_demand": 40.0, "revenue": 400.0, "sold_cogs": 240.0, "sold_units": 40.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 125.0, "closing_value": 750.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 420.0, "expired_units": 70.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 720.0, "expired_units": 120.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1500.0, "sold_cogs": 900.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 } }, "markdown": { "high": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "low": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "middle": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" } }, "reduce_order": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 440.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1700.0, "sold_cogs": 1020.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 40.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 70.0, "closing_value": 420.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 120.0, "expired_units": 20.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 480.0, "expired_units": 80.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1300.0, "sold_cogs": 780.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 240.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 300.0, "expired_units": 50.0, "potential_demand": 40.0, "revenue": 400.0, "sold_cogs": 240.0, "sold_units": 40.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 65.0, "closing_value": 390.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1500.0, "sold_cogs": 900.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 } } }, "sku_id": "K06", "status": "ok", "store_id": "S01", "summaries": { "maintain": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "maintain", "max_expired_units": 140.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "kind": "markdown", "max_expired_units": null, "max_unmet_fraction": null, "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "reduce_order", "max_expired_units": 80.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "synthetic": true }, "scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "tool": "fresh_options" } ], "OWNER": [ "Category Manager", "Buying", "Store Ops" ], "P&L IMPACT": { "basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit", "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "currency": "CNY", "forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee", "forecast_uplift": null, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7, "scenario_note": "Conditional daily lot scenarios are in EVIDENCE.fresh_options; never substitute them for historical 4+4-week P&L above.", "scenario_scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "scenario_status": "ok", "unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0 }, "PRIMARY DRIVER": "在已声明的需求情境内，减少订货比维持方案贡献更高且未超过缺货护栏；可提交人工商业复核。", "REVERSAL CONDITION": [ "需求范围、批次库存或到货条件改变时，重新计算全部方案；不得把区间上界当承诺收益。" ], "REVIEW": { "due": "2026-09-20", "metrics": [ "contribution", "revenue_vs_budget", "stockout_rate", "unknown_inventory_loss" ], "relative_to": "synthetic data as_of", "within_days": 1 }, "UNKNOWN": [ "合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。", "No promotion in scope.", "需求路径是人为给定的压力情境，未校准概率，也不保证覆盖真实需求。", "来源记录与计划一致，不等于记录、签名或审核人已由真实系统认证。", "方案只覆盖单店单品三天；租金、人力、替代购买、冷链和跨店调拨未计入。", "以下方案缺少需求反应假设，未识别经济性：markdown；不能宣称已找到最优方案。", "该区间内相对维持方案的贡献改善为 ¥360.00 至 ¥360.00；这是条件测算，尚未证明最优或真实增益。" ], "_meta": { "case_id": "F01", "data_sha256": "77150231db65078e23aa7f0b56e73957c1a8e6d23e0d37b8c9eda72d3775fdf5", "execution_enabled": false, "gate_trace": [ { "rule": "data_invalid", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "data_stale", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "unexplained_loss", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "goodhart_conflict", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "availability_constraint", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "recent_pilot_risk", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "local_outlier", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "protected_assortment", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_delist", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "competitor_unverified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_price", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "promo_unidentified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "model_untrusted", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "fresh_options_require_human_commercial_review", "triggered": true } ], "hypotheses": [], "mode": "deterministic_reference", "model_issues": [], "policy": { "max_freshness_days": 7, "max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0, "max_pilot_stores": 2, "max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05, "stockout_increase": 0.03, "unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0 }, "synthetic": true, "version": "0.1.0" } } }, { "title": "复盘后，撤回原候选判断", "change": "采纳三天合成复盘：售出 170 件，记录了 12 件未满足需求。", "question": "重新核对需求范围与到货时点；原需求问题重开，折价问题仍未完成。", "decision": "INVESTIGATE", "driver": "合成复盘出现超出原情境的未满足需求；原减量建议需要重新评估。", "action": "暂停沿用原减量建议；核对未满足订单与到货时点，扩大需求情境后重算，交品类负责人决定下一周期订货。", "rows": [ { "scenario": "低需求", "maintain": -320.0, "reduce": 40.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 }, { "scenario": "中需求", "maintain": -120.0, "reduce": 240.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 }, { "scenario": "高需求", "maintain": 80.0, "reduce": 440.0, "delta": 360.0, "unmet": 0.0 } ], "card": { "ACTION": { "description": "暂停沿用原减量建议；核对未满足订单与到货时点，扩大需求情境后重算，交品类负责人决定下一周期订货。", "execution_status": "not_executed", "requires_human_approval": true, "scope": { "duration_days": 1, "skus": [ "K06" ], "stores": [ "S01" ] }, "type": "fresh_reversal_review" }, "BUSINESS STATE": "本期销售额 ¥368,390.00；较基期变化 ¥8,696.00；贡献额变化 ¥3,794.60。", "CONFIDENCE": { "basis": "规则与算术证据的充分性判断；不是统计校准概率，也不是商业效果置信度。", "level": "MEDIUM" }, "DECISION": "INVESTIGATE", "EVIDENCE": [ { "id": "quality", "limitations": [ "A valid file can still reflect a wrong business process." ], "method": "required-field, finite-number and row-level accounting checks", "metrics": { "issues": [], "valid": true }, "scope": "all supplied rows", "tool": "quality" }, { "id": "sales_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Descriptive accounting; it does not establish demand causality.", "New/removed SKUs use their observed-period price as the bridge anchor." ], "method": "sequential total units → SKU mix → SKU price bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_revenue": 359694.0, "current_revenue": 368390.0, "mix_effect": -788.0, "price_effect": 0.0, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "revenue_change_pct": 0.024176, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "volume_effect": 9484.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; 4 baseline vs 4 current weeks", "tool": "sales" }, { "id": "margin_decomposition", "limitations": [ "Unit cost is the supplied accounting cost, not a full P&L allocation.", "Unknown count loss is shown as exposure, outside booked contribution until reconciled." ], "method": "SKU quantity → price → unit-cost bridge, then booked shrink and promo-cost bridge", "metrics": { "baseline_contribution": 158069.2, "baseline_gross_margin": 158532.6, "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "current_contribution": 161863.8, "current_gross_margin": 162442.4, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "known_shrink_cost": 578.6, "known_shrink_delta": 115.2, "price_effect": 0.0, "promo_cost": 0.0, "promo_cost_delta": 0.0, "quantity_effect": 3909.8, "reconciliation_residual": -0.0, "unit_cost_effect": -0.0, "unknown_loss_exposure": 0.0 }, "scope": "all store/SKU/channel rows; before vs after period", "tool": "margin" }, { "id": "inventory_anomaly", "limitations": [ "A discrepancy identifies a reconciliation problem, not its cause.", "Channel pools must not be summed as a shared physical stock position." ], "method": "book close - independently counted actual close; stockout hours/open hours", "metrics": { "baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "by_sku_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 }, "current": { "K01": 0.0, "K02": 0.0, "K03": 0.0, "K04": 0.0, "K05": 0.0, "K06": 0.0, "K07": 0.0, "K08": 0.0 } }, "by_store_stockout_rate": { "baseline": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 }, "current": { "S01": 0.0, "S02": 0.0, "S03": 0.0, "S04": 0.0, "S05": 0.0, "S06": 0.0 } }, "current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "inventory_scope": "Each row is one store/SKU/channel inventory pool; carry-forward occurs within that pool.", "known_loss_value": 578.6, "target_baseline_stockout_rate": 0.0, "target_current_stockout_rate": 0.0, "unknown_loss_units": 0, "unknown_loss_value": 0.0 }, "scope": "channel-dedicated inventory pools; current vs baseline", "tool": "inventory" }, { "id": "promo_incrementality", "limitations": [ "No promotion in scope." ], "method": "no promoted observations", "metrics": { "incremental_contribution": null, "incremental_units": null, "status": "not_applicable" }, "scope": "current-period promotions", "tool": "promo" }, { "id": "store_cluster_compare", "limitations": [ "Only two peers per store in this demo; outlier status locates investigation and does not determine root cause." ], "method": "leave-one-store-out peer median and MAD within the same cluster; threshold max(15%, 3×MAD)", "metrics": { "by_store": [ { "baseline_revenue": 52987.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 53278.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.02255, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.005492, "store_id": "S01" }, { "baseline_revenue": 55899.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 57125.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.01433, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.021932, "store_id": "S02" }, { "baseline_revenue": 58746.0, "cluster": "urban", "current_revenue": 60107.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.013712, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.023168, "store_id": "S03" }, { "baseline_revenue": 61208.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 62850.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.03196, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.026827, "store_id": "S04" }, { "baseline_revenue": 63778.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 65935.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.028463, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.03382, "store_id": "S05" }, { "baseline_revenue": 67076.0, "cluster": "community", "current_revenue": 69095.0, "outlier_threshold": 0.15, "peer_median_change_pct": 0.030324, "peer_n": 2, "revenue_change_pct": 0.0301, "store_id": "S06" } ], "outlier_store_ids": [] }, "scope": "within-cluster store comparison, baseline vs current aggregate revenue", "tool": "stores" }, { "id": "assortment", "limitations": [ "Role is a supplied business input; this does not estimate customer substitution or delist impact." ], "method": "bottom quartile current unit volume plus explicit need-coverage protection", "metrics": { "current_units_by_sku": { "K01": 1422.0, "K02": 1556.0, "K03": 1698.0, "K04": 1848.0, "K05": 1993.0, "K06": 2117.0, "K07": 2279.0, "K08": 2424.0 }, "low_sales_skus": [ "K01", "K02" ], "protected_skus": [ "K07" ] }, "scope": "current period SKU sales and supplied roles", "tool": "assortment" }, { "id": "budget", "limitations": [ "Budget ownership and allocation logic are outside this file." ], "method": "sum actual minus supplied budget at store/SKU/channel granularity", "metrics": { "gross_margin_actual": 162442.4, "gross_margin_budget": 167315.79, "gross_margin_variance": -4873.39, "revenue_actual": 368390.0, "revenue_budget": 379441.7, "revenue_variance": -11051.7 }, "scope": "current-period row budgets", "tool": "budget" }, { "id": "pilot_weekly_review", "limitations": [ "Descriptive weekly operating signal only; it does not establish causality or statistical significance.", "It is not a forecast or a guarantee of future pilot performance.", "Threshold interpretation and any decision remain outside this quantitative tool." ], "method": "no eligible current treatment-and-promotion pool", "metrics": { "by_store_period": [], "current_weeks": [], "latest_contribution": null, "latest_pool_rates": [], "latest_week": null, "latest_worst_pool_stockout_rate": null, "pool_recent": [], "prior_current_mean_contribution": null, "sku_ids": [], "status": "not_applicable", "store_ids": [], "weekly": [] }, "scope": "actual current treatment + promotion store/SKU/channel pools for context target SKUs; all rows retained within selected pools", "tool": "pilot_weekly" }, { "id": "source_provenance_audit", "limitations": [ "Synthetic declarations only: source matching does not verify external authenticity, signatures, hashes, or reviewer identity." ], "method": "audit_sources", "metrics": { "claims": [ { "claim_id": "count", "claim_type": "physical_count", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "physical_count", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "count-sheet" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": [ { "expires_on": "2026-09-19", "lot_id": "near-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 90 }, { "expires_on": "2026-09-21", "lot_id": "later-expiry", "unit_cost": 6, "units": 60 } ], "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "demand", "claim_type": "demand_basis", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "demand_basis", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "demand-note" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": true, "resolved_fact": { "high": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 50, 60, 60 ] }, "low": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 30, 50, 50 ] }, "middle": { "daily_potential_demand": [ 40, 55, 55 ] } }, "status": "observed" }, { "claim_id": "order", "claim_type": "order_authority", "evidence_references": [ { "kind": "order_authority", "observed_at": "2026-09-19", "source_id": "order-review" } ], "issues": [], "required_for_analysis": false, "resolved_fact": { "action": "reduce_order", "amount": 60, "limit": 120, "unit": "units" }, "status": "observed" } ], "external_authenticity": "not_verified", "issues": [], "status": "observed" }, "scope": { "sku_id": "K06", "store_id": "S01" }, "tool": "sources" }, { "id": "fresh_options", "limitations": [ "Conditional scenarios, not a demand forecast or causal uplift.", "No probabilities; no rent, labour, substitution, or cold-chain model.", "Source matching does not establish external authenticity." ], "method": "FEFO lot flow under explicit, unweighted demand scenarios; Decimal cost reconciliation", "metrics": { "as_of": "2026-09-19", "assumptions": [ "Scenario daily potential demand is supplied synthetic input, not a sales forecast.", "No scenario probabilities or expected value are calculated.", "Sales use FEFO; each day receives first, sells in-date lots, then writes off lots expiring that day." ], "comparisons": { "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "limitations": [ "No commonly calculated scenario to compare with maintain." ], "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "probabilities_used": false, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "max_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": 360.0, "min_contribution_improvement_vs_maintain": 360.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "horizon_days": 3, "results": { "maintain": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 80.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 120.0, "closing_value": 720.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 600.0, "expired_units": 100.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1700.0, "sold_cogs": 1020.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": -320.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 130.0, "closing_value": 780.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 480.0, "expired_units": 80.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 840.0, "expired_units": 140.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1300.0, "sold_cogs": 780.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": -120.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 300.0, "expired_units": 50.0, "potential_demand": 40.0, "revenue": 400.0, "sold_cogs": 240.0, "sold_units": 40.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 125.0, "closing_value": 750.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 420.0, "expired_units": 70.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 720.0, "expired_units": 120.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 720.0, "revenue": 1500.0, "sold_cogs": 900.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 } }, "markdown": { "high": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "low": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" }, "middle": { "limitations": [ "Markdown multiplier is not supplied for this synthetic scenario; markdown revenue is not calculated." ], "status": "not_identified" } }, "reduce_order": { "high": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 440.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 60.0, "revenue": 600.0, "sold_cogs": 360.0, "sold_units": 60.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 240.0, "expired_units": 40.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1700.0, "sold_cogs": 1020.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "low": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 40.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "potential_demand": 30.0, "revenue": 300.0, "sold_cogs": 180.0, "sold_units": 30.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 70.0, "closing_value": 420.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 120.0, "expired_units": 20.0, "potential_demand": 50.0, "revenue": 500.0, "sold_cogs": 300.0, "sold_units": 50.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 480.0, "expired_units": 80.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1300.0, "sold_cogs": 780.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 }, "middle": { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 240.0, "daily": [ { "closing_units": 60.0, "closing_value": 360.0, "date": "2026-09-19", "day": 0, "expired_cost": 300.0, "expired_units": 50.0, "potential_demand": 40.0, "revenue": 400.0, "sold_cogs": 240.0, "sold_units": 40.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 65.0, "closing_value": 390.0, "date": "2026-09-20", "day": 1, "expired_cost": 0.0, "expired_units": 0.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 }, { "closing_units": 0.0, "closing_value": 0.0, "date": "2026-09-21", "day": 2, "expired_cost": 60.0, "expired_units": 10.0, "potential_demand": 55.0, "revenue": 550.0, "sold_cogs": 330.0, "sold_units": 55.0, "unmet_units": 0.0 } ], "expired_cost": 360.0, "expired_units": 60.0, "fees": 0.0, "purchase_cash": 360.0, "revenue": 1500.0, "sold_cogs": 900.0, "status": "calculated", "unmet_units": 0.0 } } }, "sku_id": "K06", "status": "ok", "store_id": "S01", "summaries": { "maintain": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "maintain", "max_expired_units": 140.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "markdown": { "calculated_scenarios": 0, "kind": "markdown", "max_expired_units": null, "max_unmet_fraction": null, "status": "not_identified", "total_scenarios": 3 }, "reduce_order": { "calculated_scenarios": 3, "kind": "reduce_order", "max_expired_units": 80.0, "max_unmet_fraction": 0.0, "status": "calculated", "total_scenarios": 3 } }, "synthetic": true }, "scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "tool": "fresh_options" }, { "id": "fresh_review", "limitations": [ "Synthetic follow-up only; no actual business execution or causal benefit established." ], "method": "Observed units and cost conservation; compare supplied outcomes with prior scenarios", "metrics": { "conservation": { "cost_residual": 0.0, "unit_residual": 0.0 }, "contribution": 440.0, "model_comparison": { "model_contribution_max": 440.0, "model_contribution_min": 40.0, "model_max_unfilled_fraction": 0.0, "observed_outside_scenario_range": true, "status": "calculated" }, "observed_outside_scenario_range": true, "observed_unfilled_fraction": 0.06593406593406594, "observed_unfilled_rate_exceeds_0_05": true, "selected_action": "reduce_order", "source_id": "synthetic-pilot-log", "status": "observed", "synthetic": true }, "scope": "synthetic follow-up of selected plan; separate from historical 4+4-week P&L", "tool": "fresh_review" } ], "OWNER": [ "Category Manager", "Store Ops", "Supply" ], "P&L IMPACT": { "basis": "ex VAT; gross margin before known shrink/promo costs; contribution proxy is not net profit", "contribution_delta": 3794.6, "currency": "CNY", "forecast_status": "not estimated; historical association is not a future guarantee", "forecast_uplift": null, "gross_margin_delta": 3909.8, "gross_margin_vs_budget": -4873.39, "revenue_delta": 8696.0, "revenue_vs_budget": -11051.7, "scenario_note": "Conditional daily lot scenarios are in EVIDENCE.fresh_options; never substitute them for historical 4+4-week P&L above.", "scenario_scope": { "days": 3, "sku": "K06", "start": "2026-09-19", "store": "S01" }, "scenario_status": "ok", "unexplained_inventory_exposure": 0.0 }, "PRIMARY DRIVER": "合成复盘出现超出原情境的未满足需求；原减量建议需要重新评估。", "REVERSAL CONDITION": [ "需求范围、批次库存或到货条件改变时，重新计算全部方案；不得把区间上界当承诺收益。" ], "REVIEW": { "due": "2026-09-23", "metrics": [ "contribution", "revenue_vs_budget", "stockout_rate", "unknown_inventory_loss" ], "relative_to": "synthetic follow-up cutoff", "within_days": 1 }, "UNKNOWN": [ "合成数据只验证决策流程；尚未观察真实门店、消费者复购或真实经营收益。", "No promotion in scope.", "需求路径是人为给定的压力情境，未校准概率，也不保证覆盖真实需求。", "来源记录与计划一致，不等于记录、签名或审核人已由真实系统认证。", "方案只覆盖单店单品三天；租金、人力、替代购买、冷链和跨店调拨未计入。", "未满足订单占比与原周度缺货时长不是同一指标；5% 是本合成案例的复盘阈值。" ], "_meta": { "case_id": "F01", "data_sha256": "a75749a24aadbe30f80d05564d0be8f3907a01ded6cc48fd1d30789eb824087c", "execution_enabled": false, "gate_trace": [ { "rule": "data_invalid", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "data_stale", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "unexplained_loss", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "goodhart_conflict", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "availability_constraint", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "recent_pilot_risk", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "local_outlier", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "protected_assortment", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_delist", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "competitor_unverified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "reserved_price", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "promo_unidentified", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "model_untrusted", "triggered": false }, { "rule": "fresh_options_require_human_commercial_review", "triggered": true } ], "hypotheses": [], "mode": "deterministic_reference", "model_issues": [], "policy": { "max_freshness_days": 7, "max_pilot_spend_cny": 1000.0, "max_pilot_stores": 2, "max_stockout_rate_for_pilot": 0.05, "stockout_increase": 0.03, "unknown_loss_escalation_cny": 100.0 }, "synthetic": true, "version": "0.1.0" } } } ], "followup_input": { "closing_units": 0, "closing_value": 0, "documented_unfilled_units": 12, "expired_cost": 240, "expired_units": 40, "fees": 0, "note": "Synthetic follow-up: 12 unfilled units explicitly logged; these are not inferred from sales. No actual business execution.", "opening_units": 150, "opening_value": 900, "receipts_units": 60, "receipts_value": 360, "revenue": 1700, "review_as_of": "2026-09-22", "selected_action": "reduce_order", "sold_cogs": 1020, "sold_units": 170, "source_id": "synthetic-pilot-log", "status": "simulated_follow_up_only", "synthetic": true }, "source": { "file": "artifacts/followup_demo/cards.json", "sha256": "6263d7521e6f95fddbc836812d409a73a2386c836af4e42f66b41e273064049b" }, "interpretation": "Recorded prototype outputs, not forecasts, real approvals, business ROI, or a new model evaluation." }